The future of globalization

Eduardo Porter(NYT 3/19/14) reviews the issues of globalization.  Viewed from the aggregate world perspective,  millions of poverty victims have risen to survival status in other countries by becoming marginal workers.   While millions of middle class workers in the developed countries have been driven down to lower class or poverty by the collapse of the value of their labor in comparable industries.  This is not hypothetical but data.   At the same time,   the capital wealth has become more concentrated in a fewer number throughout the world.  This should not surprise anyone since in a capitalist economy it is the control of capital that determines how things happen or develop.   This change was happening slowly after the 60s but accelerated rapidly in the Clinton-Rubin era when Democrats surprisingly aligned themselves with Wall St. (Wall St.  is the center for capital manipulation and management and is utterly agnostic about how it is used as long as the returns are good and secure!)   Clinton masked the acceleration of the labor market collapse by the “internet bubble”.  And after 911 challenged the role of American financial markets,  Bush/Greenspan masked the effects again with a “housing bubble” fueled by artificially low government interest rates.   The fiery intensity of this bubble and how expertly it was fueled by Wall St made it shorter and more desperate, and more global than probably any other bubble in history,  and also more focused on the developed countries and the middle class.   Ironically,  what was supposed to protect the middle class eroded its financial position even more rapidly.
    What is the prospect for the future of workers in the US?   It is important to recognize that local solutions may not generalize to the whole economy.   England experienced much of this economic collapse at the contraction of the “empire” after WW2 and attempted to become the “financial center” of expertise for Europe.   This has not protected the English economy from severe collapse,  as it is not possible to pay enough people working in the financial sector to support even a small country like Britain.  This is more true in the US economy despite the heyday in the 90’s when the financial industry was a major sector of the economy's growth (and again in the early oughts).  
    Tech and the internet cannot provide this broad economic support because tech hires too few workers,  who are too leveraged in their production impact,  and at least at present the industry depends for revenue almost entirely on marketing and advertising returns,  and is thus a generalization of the media sector and consumer sectors.   There is a potential for the tech-internet sector to provide new business creation solutions over time,  but these will not involve large work forces,  and as in the cellphone,  the hardware component quickly becomes of marginal value as competition sets in.   Tech companies,  like Apple,  follow a model originally developed by Nike,  in which the design and marketing expertise are maintained by the core company,  while production is outsourced to minimize the low return on material production compared to intellectual production.   It would seem that intellectual production is the new key to wealth,  but here the digital world provides an odd reversal:  digital media erode the ability to sustain unique intellectual products and the value of marketing intellectual property is undermined,  and pirated. 
    Viewed globally, the world economy is evolving toward a pattern in which there is relatively sustainable food,  shelter,  and clothing at just above a subsistence level for the majority of folks.  Agriculture, manufacturing,  and marketing-transportation are primary industries,  but of marginal value to the participants and only of value to a small handful of stakeholders.  (And the ownership through joint stock holding is becoming less and less reliable and more manipulated by large capital aggregates called “hedge funds”.)    Above this world wide layer of persons living on the edge of poverty and up toward marginal subsistence.  There is a thin layer of middle class service persons with additional skills that allow them a slight advantage over the lowest class,  but who are not in control of their work,  but part of large corporate aggregates with no job security or stability.  With the outsourcing of technical and medical skills,  these jobs now include lawyers,  doctors,  engineers etc.   While still middle class they are marginally so.   And they do not have the control over their economic stability originally viewed as characteristic of this class.    Rising from this group is a class of corporate players:  persons who work up through levels of corporate authority so that their compensation distantly reflects the returns of heads of corporations.   Such persons appear wealthy even by current standards,  but this is an illusion:   they have sacrificed many years at lower paying returns and will have only a few high paying years before they are replaced by the next wave.  Only a tiny few will retain their role as corporate leaders and earners for a sustained period.   This “corporate ladder” group earns above the minimal middle class level but the life style demands of their jobs and lives make them less wealthy than their income suggests,  especially as they often live in cities with high costs of living.
    There is only one class remaining who are potentially truly wealthy:  these are capital entrepreneurs:  those persons who risk their own money and time to build successful enterprises by planning and luck and get dramatic returns on their capital.  As is fitting in a capital economy,  their risk of capital is the controlling variable,  and the potential for failure is statistically high.  This is in essence,  a “lottery economy”  and all intelligent entrepreneurs attempt, as J P Morgan did,  to get as much control over the risk as possible by eliminating competition and other oligarchic or outright monopolistic practices.  The same instincts can be observed in modern tech companies with only minor interference by regulators.
    This draws a fundamentally undemocratic picture of society.   The control of vast low return workers by a small cadre of successful capitalists is the recipe for “banana republics” or “plantation economies” in the agricultural sphere.   The evidence that these financial entities are attempting to control democratic governments and influence their direction to favor this process is obvious in every detail of modern governmental policy in the developed countries,  especially the US,  and is relatively true in the developing ones.   Everyone is willing to give up most everything else for the hope of becoming rich.  Globalization did not cause this shift but it accelerated it.   (And one wonders how much of the Arab world’s turmoil is due to the frustration of their citizens who had not been able to participate in this transformation to the same extent.)
    What will the future look like from here?   There will be a vast subsistence consumer economy,  in which consumer goods become cheaper and cheaper until they are just barely more than trash.  We can see this evolution in the computer and the cell phone,  as well as many other basic products.   We can see this evolution in the development of “manufactured food” which has less and less complex nutritional value but is adequate for sustenance and cheap to produce,  and tasty enough to be consumable.  This mass public is entertained by an array of electronic information which fills in the non-working hours and is successful in diverting and managing urges for more complex life experiences.   This group of workers produce sufficient low cost consumer goods to sustain the world,  and a small amount of more expensive “middle class” and “wealthy” goods for the rest.   It is a world in which children are indoctrinated early to become mindless consumers, and as people age they provide economic energy to the “healthcare industry” until they perish at suitable points for recycling.  Basic satisfaction is encouraged to avoid rebellion or reaction to the status quo.  There is marginal opportunity for rising through the system to ensure that subsequent generations sustain the process.   The birth rate falls to sustain a stable population,  and education becomes privatized and is highly geared to integrate citizens to their “place” in society and discourage independent thinking.  It is,  in short,  a world very close to the current one.   Events like severe unemployment and housing finance manipulation must be controlled to minimize social unrest,  and these are the tasks of “hired” “political servants” (not “public servants”).    The analysis of Porter,  and his sources is essentially correct about the changes occurring in the world,  but they do not go far enough in seeing the long term changes in the social order that such a transformation predicts.
    This vision of the future is not inevitable.  No prediction of the future is.   If some other factor is identified as the key source of value:  the individual,  the capacity for self determination,  etc,  then the role of capital as the controlling factor in society can be regulated.   But if capital and its direction of economy and production is the determining control of the society,  and if it is allowed to control the development of civilization, then this looks like a pretty good prediction.

An evolutionary view of morality and religion

I prepared this summary for a discussing group in the next month.  Thought it might be interesting to others as well.  In the previous blog I mused about the incompatibilities between contemplation and structured morality.  Here I see a different relationship.

The fundamental guiding principle of life is evolution.  Whether it is thought of as the survival of the individual as Darwin proposed or the survival of the species,  as some more modern theorists propose,  this is the fundamental principle:  life operates to continue life.

 In animals,  evolutionary processes operate directly on neural pathways that control behavior patterns.   These patterns are termed "instincts" or "instinctual behaviors"  And this is a prime focus of evolutionary process for influencing survival in ambulatory creatures (in addition to other areas of operation). 

In higher animals,  these instincts can be modified to some extent through learning.
In the course of evolution,  the human brain has expanded the cortical regions and learning process to such an extent that the inhibitory controls of cortex effectively nullify instinctual control of most of human behavior.  ( I know there are a number of pop culture writers who point to violence and war as signs that humans are still instinctual,  and I would be happy to refute those views.)  Therefore:  evolutionary processes can no longer act directly on instinctual behavior patterns to ensure human survival!

Humans must therefore perceptually discern which human patterns of action are more likely to result in survival for the individual or the group. 

The state of open immediate awareness and contemplation which is often called a "spiritual state" or "spirituality" is none other than the state in which the human organism attempts to discern the path of best survival free of preconditioning.  (It must be free of preconditioning to some extent because the path of survival is always changing!) 

All persons have this ability,  but from time to time specific humans arise who are observed by their peers to be especially skilled or gifted in this perception.  Sometimes they arise in periods of crisis,  other times not.  They are hailed as "religious leaders"  or "prophets"  and their observations are observed,  recorded,  and transmitted in their society for guidance.

This wisdom becomes codified into morality by organized followers who create a  "religion" and observed by the followers of this prophet until such time as the wisdom is less applicable and a new prophet arises to challenge old views and develop a new spiritual path to survival.

Morality is the codified current version of the accepted spiritual path of a given human group.

Morality is attached to religion by virtue of how it is created,  and by how a group of followers form who embody the guidance.

Can there be a "scientific morality"?  ie can there be a path for survival which is determined by scientific analysis of previous life situations?   No.  Recall the warning in all Mutual fund promotions:  "previous results are no guarantee of future performance".   Since evolution is statistical,  it is impossible to scientifically guarantee that a certain path is the best for evolutionary survival.  But that does not stop people from doing research. 

Two contradictory beliefs, sitting by the ocean.

This is the time of year for change,  the Fall,  and in the Jewish tradition,  a new year begins at this time.   Over the years it has been a time of introspection for me.   A time for reviewing the past year and planning for the next.   It is no accident that this coincides with the traditional school year, after the Summer break, the return to school in the Fall.   Over the past few years,  I  have turned more and more to Nature to understand my spiritual side.  This year I walked down a path to a cove on the ocean and sat for a while just watching the sea and reading from a book by Krishnamurti.  It was cool in the morning,  the trail was virtually empty and the ocean calm.  There was a spearfisherman in the water, and a pair of paddle boarders,  and some birds.  

Krishnamurti was born in India, and identified as a child as a great spiritual leader for the Theosophical society.  He disavowed this role and led a life of a non-affiliated speaker and teacher throughout the world,  eventually settling in the Ojai valley.  I find his view of meditative spirituality particularly clear and unencumbered by any historical tradition.  (TO BE HUMAN).   All mind is present.  All thought is conditioned.   You must experience the world without conditioned responses to be free.   His view is very clear and his way of "pointing" effective.  

 Sitting by the ocean,  I try to understand how his view squares with the Middle Eastern religions that are the foundation of most modern religions:  the 10 commandments, "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you." etc.   How to reconcile this meditative tradition which seems to reject the importance of moral judgements and "historical" injunctions?   These religions include confessions of "sins" and an intensive focus on what one has done wrong and right in the past year.  For the most part,  this is mostly a confession of sins of self assertion against the values of the group!   The 10 commandments are almost entirely about honoring group values over the individual.  (It is interesting that incest is not one of the commandments,  nor anything to do with sexual misconduct but adultery.)  What does this tell us? Meditative spirituality seems to lack of a perspective on the balance of individual and group!

In Michener's HAWAII,  there is a passage about the formation of the leper colony on Kalaupapa, Molokai and how, in the initial phase, the colony reverted to a primitive "rule of the strongest" society,  but then the rest organized together and eventually created a more civil system,  managed by rules and order.   This is a microcosm of a recurrent human process.   We are a group centered "pack" species and live and hunt in "packs" or tribes.   It is our primary survival adaptation in lieu of claws,  talons,  etc.   Banishment from the tribe is the greatest punishment because it threatens survival and also the loss of the sense of interpersonal support.   We must learn to form packs in which the demands of the individual do not destroy the cohesion of the group.  So every child grows up "socialized" to fit first its family,  and then the group culture within which the family resides.   Most rules of morality within religion are rules of group cohesion.  Whether these are ordered by the "great patriarchal father"  or "our ancestors"  or just common sense,  they become the boundaries of tribal cohesion.  (Even those rules which involve honoring the patriarchal god figure can be seen as relating to group authority.)  The individual's desire for self satisfaction is always struggling against these boundaries.  Every political movement,  every political controversy is always about finding the balance between these two poles in a given group, including the Liberal/Conservative debate in our current election.

All these rules of appropriate participation are "thoughts" in the Krishnamurti sense, interfering with a truly free sense of life.  They are part of past learning,  and represent a boundary on living in the present.   To be an accepted member of the group,  one must monitor ones situation and obey these parameters.   This knowledge is just as necessary as how to drive a car,  or how to avoid stepping on rattlesnakes.   They contribute to the fear of loneliness and isolation,  just as he describes,  and cannot be ignored as "just psychological" because they are based on real requirements:  to live with others,  to hold a job,  to maintain a marriage,  etc.

K does not say that thought or conditioning is unnecessary.  Rather that the mind must always be on guard: "Therefore the brain is actively watching itself every minute to see that thought and time do not enter the realm where they are not necessary."…"This is real discipline"…So there is a skill to be developed by which the mind learns to differentiate situations which require thought and conditioning from those which do not. 

Historically,  the contemplative religions dealt with this contradiction in principles by being monastic.   The followers left the boundaries of ordinary society to become devotees and then survive on charity,  minimal self production,  and a culture of isolation within the community.   This is NOT the basis for a long term stable value system.   So such traditions,  Buddhism for example,  eventually included a secondary system of value:  in Buddhism this becomes Boddhisaatva: "not withdrawing from the cycles of Samsara until every sentient being is enlightened"  ie,  being willing to work with others to promote the same culture and set of beliefs.  And also the 8 principles of the noble path, which include specific lifestyle expectations. 

Throughout human history,  when different value systems interact at a boundary, conflict usually occurs.  This is mostly to maintain group cohesion,  because the failure of others to follow your belief system threatens that your adherence is not crucial to survival in this world,  or the next.  It represents a challenge to and disconfirmation of your belief system.  Such confrontations can be very violent, bloody,  and ongoing as in the 30 years war between Protestants and Catholics in Europe from 1618-1648.   What makes our current global world so challenging is that the dissemination of global communications expands this edge of culture contact everywhere.  There is virtually no region of the globe that does not experience this challenge of conflicting value systems thanks to the internet!

There is "sin".  It is actions which alienate one from one's community.   And these are constantly changing and depend to a significant degree on the judgement of the group.  And there is also living unbounded by conditioning in the present moment.  And these two are not easy to reconcile.  There is "absolute sin" in the sense of actions by the group or its members that destroy the group or lower its likelihood of survival.   Within this group boundary,  the individual struggles to find "freedom" from the conditioning and demands of history and experience to live in the present moment.  

How lives became "lifestyles".

Once upon a time, people's life choices were mostly determined by the traditions of one's place in the world and family.  People learned their father's and mother's work or trade.   People lived in parents houses or one's like them.   Architecture was about protection from the elements and enemies but for a very few who could make their dwelling an expression of their own interests and world view.   When did Americans begin to live "lifestyles" instead of "lives"?   Historians will debate this after the debate over the difference.   Living seems pretty simple and direct: you wake up,  get ready,  go to whatever you do for the day,  etc.   What makes living a "lifestyle"?  Choices.   Each moment of the day is filled with personal choices.   What to wear,  how to live,  what to eat,  what work to do,  etc.   How are these choices determined? What was the start of the "lifestyle"?

    Perhaps the first indications of change were in clothing,  personal appearance, and haircut.   It is likely that traditions of personal appearance have been a method of personal expression for nobles and courtiers through history.   But it is certainly sometime in the early 20th century before this became an option for more everyday people.   How did everyday people learn to become "stylish"?   The answer is the movies and tabloids.   For the first time,  in the 20s, there was a visual unifying experience for a broad range of the population to measure its style against that of a "higher standard".   The movie industry was augmented by fan magazines with very high quality promotional photography,  and style consciousness could be transmitted to a much broader range of the population.   Women and men began to adopt styles which they saw being worn by their favorite actors,  and this led to intense stimulation of sectors of the clothing industry.   Its true that individuals are still making choices about their lives,  but now the choices reflect "quoted experience" of others, instead of idiosyncratic personal commitment.   (This can be observed in watching old newsreels:  the people in the crowd do not seem to have an awareness that they are subject to being observed.  They are oblivious.   While modern news "man on the street" individually or in a crowd has carefully crafted a "look" for external review.  Indeed, the absence is often taken as a sign of mental illness.)

    WWII seemed to reverse much of this.   There is not much choice in a military uniform,  and those left behind appear to have been too busy and too constrained to innovate new styles.   But soon after the end of the war,  the process restarted with renewed intensity.   But now a new phenomenon also emerged.   Differences in personal and ethnic style,  which had been minimized and ignored in the "melting pot" process of the late 19th century,  suddenly re-emerged.   There were African American styles,  Chicano styles,  including the famous Zoot-suiters,  and there was also a return of a film inspired sense of "glamour".  

    The transition to recreation came next.   For most of our history,  people did what was available to do around them:  if they lived by the water,  they did things related to water,  if they lived in the mountains,  they did mountain things,  and etc.   Now stories,  films,  and other promotions made some of these activities:  skiing,  surfing,  backpacking, deep sea fishing, etc,  seem to be especially appealing,  and people began to envision themselves engaging in activities not very proximal to the location of home.   This came to the rich and upper middle class first,  because they could more easily afford the travel costs,  but eventually the craze to try these activities spread across the society.   People were deciding to make such activities the primary interest of their lives,  and their material support of secondary importance.  The ski-patrol (or ski-bum) lifestyle became the archetype for this change.   Yes,  men had always gone fishing or played golf (not quite always),  and women had sewed or knitted or quilted together,  but these were usually part of personal family and local traditions.  Now they became part of a country wide zeitgeist.   You could decide to become a skier.  Get "into" the lifestyle,  then move to a skiing region and make it the focus of your life.   Or even continue to live in the flatlands and take all your vacations skiing,  or even own a second apartment in a ski area to vacation.   All these could be valid personal choices,  but they invariably became associated with certain constraints of style:   there were the proper outfits to wear,  the proper places to go to vacation (within one's economic level),  the proper talk about what you were doing.   You became part of a community of interest,  a lifestyle.   And the structure of this lifestyle was driven by marketers and developers,  just as promotional experts had driven interest in style and clothing.  Why do all contemporary skiers (or recreation bike riders)  look similar?  Because marketers have convinced them that certain clothing,  equipment,  and locations are essential to be included in the selected lifestyle.  The magazines, movies,  and TV shows all contributed to marketing this way of living.

    To the person,  it appears that the individual is still selecting  his or her life choices,  but in aggregate it is clear that the range of choices have been significantly reduced in order to compel participation in the "lifestyle"  for mostly economic,  and social identity reasons.   In the process,  much of the original charm of the lifestyle is lost!   Surfers now fight over who is entitled to surf a given territory,  in contrast to the formerly "laid back" surfer image.   Skiing was once a way to "get away from civilization" into the mountains,  but is now so crowded with condos,  cars,  and choked lift lines that there is little difference from urban experience in major ski areas.   And the restaurant chains,  stores,  etc,  remind us immediately that skiing is about economic choices as much as about ski trails.

    The ultimate transformation of life to lifestyle is in housing.   For much of history,  the cost of housing was such a significant component of one's income that the driving forces were convenience and affordability,  along with adequate space for one's family.   Housing took the form dictated by the structure of the land on which it sat.  In Manhattan the limited space gave rise to dense vertical housing with incomprehensibly small spaces,   in order to have proximity to features of the city.   Outside of dense cities,  suburban development permitted larger lots,  bigger homes,  and the evolution of one and two story house plans.  Somewhere in the evolution of housing,  the transition from 2nd homes around resort areas,  to living around a resort as a primary residence emerged as a possibility.   The rich had always had multiple homes in different locations,  to exploit the opportunities of different activities.   Middle class people desired this option but could not afford multiple homes.   The first solution was condos and time shares at resort locations:  a smaller size of ownership,  perhaps rented part of the time,  or a smaller unit of time ownership would allow less wealthy people to feel like they had multiple homes,  but without the greater cost.  Now you could LIVE your ski resort lifestyle,  or coastal beach lifestyle,  or golf resort lifestyle,  if only for two weeks a year.  It was really just a vacation,  but developers were selling it as "your life" at the beach.  It was "your home", and your chance to enjoy this special place (if only for a week a year).  

    Of course,  each individual is choosing how to live his (her?) life,  but now the choice of clothing,  equipment,  activities,  and even shelter are all structured around ways to sell the individual on these activities,  as a package,  a "lifestyle".   And there could be a package for every economic level,  each person could envision the fantasy of how they were living the "golf resort"  or "ski resort" or "beach resort" life.  Meanwhile, of course,  these packaged lives were looking less and less like the idealized worlds their choosers had envisioned and more and more like prepackaged dreams manufactured by marketers and developers.   Where is the line between choosing to live your life,  and being structured to live your lifestyle within the defined parameters of a developers package?  And does anyone care?   As long as I get to go skiing  (golfing, beaching,  etc) (with everyone else) what does it matter how I chose it?

Charles Bronson (November 3, 1921 – August 30, 2003)

Where is Chas. Bronson when we need him?   The death of this actor years ago was a big story at the time.  In his peak years he created a screen persona which endeared him to many Americans.  This was the ordinary guy who is unfairly treated by the “higher ups” or the “bad guys” or the “evil terrorists” and virtually single handedly, he reverses the tide, comes out victorious, and saves the rest of us as well. 

We can think of other actors, like Clint Eastwood or Sylvester Stallone, who portray a similar screen persona.  But Bronson was unique in his ability to do this with an apparent absence of personal narcissism.  He was everyman, just the average guy, who confronts the evil of the world and triumphs, but without any fanfare or  attitude. (Compare the ridiculous persona of the James Bond character.)   The mythical American Hero is often seen as the lone avenger of the injustices of the world, but probably never so succinctly as Bronson managed it.  Whether it was violent criminals in the street or sleeper agents suddenly brought to life to cause WWIII,  he took care of the problem.

His characters helped overcome the fantasy fears of the average man, but also set a dangerous precedent.  Here finally was someone who “really could” terminate all the bad guys.  Here is the mental model for those in the current and previous administrations who visualized our most specialized forces as capable of charging into the heart of danger, and decisively vanquishing the foe.

The incursions into Iraq and Afghanistan, like all wars, give the lie to hero fantasies and the "lone ranger complex".  No matter how brave,  or well trained or equipped a cadre of warriors, the enemy when overwhelmed does not stand and fight but withdraws to find circumstances more favorable to him for the confrontation.  And no modern country has the human resources (except China ?) to commit a significant portion of its young adult population into the task of conquering and subduing another country.  It is not clear that any country ever survived this delusion.  Certainly Greece did not tolerate the expeditions of Alexander without deteriorating, nor Rome, Caesar, nor France, Napoleon.  The lesson of history is that any nation that tries to dominate others through the expression of dominant military force is endangering its fundamental resources.  

Bronson could single-handedly take on all comers,  because he was in a movie.  Americans in the battlefields of Asia are dealing with reality.   When the world's nations come together to vanquish a common enemy,  it so far has succeeded.   When a single nation proposes to overpower another,  most often it squanders its resources,  while the opponent awaits its moment of diminishing returns.

How many times must US leaders learn this basic lesson?

What have we learned from 911?

Soon after the 9/11 attack, Niall Ferguson wrote a piece in the NYT (Dec 2001) proposing that the event was a marker of certain world trends: 1)international spread of terrorism with its arrival in NYC 2)ECONOMIC contraction of the world economy along with exaggeration of the richer/poorer divide despite efforts at globalization and free trade. He cites the growing wealth inequity across richer and poorer countries as well as the strain of demand on raw materials esp oil as a source of energy and its long term impact on world economy. He specifically cited the dilemma in Saudi Arabia of decreasing prices at the demand of western allies which has contracted the internal economy of the country. 3)The shift from informal to formal imperialism in US foreign policy. He chose to use the term imperialism because he was writing a book comparing US as an imperial power to Britain in the late 19th and early 20th century. 

Ten years later, there have been many reflections on the event. Most are nationalist and self congratulatory about how the US has "survived and prospered" despite 911. And there have been memorials for the slain victims. Fewer are the efforts to evaluate what we have learned in the 10 years since this catastrophe. This reflects the reality that not much has been learned and the destructive effects of the event continue to reverberate through our society. 

 Have we learned to manage our fear of vulnerability? Not very much. The meaningless and ineffective airport screenings continue. Port and highway points of entry are as vulnerable as before. Bin Laden was recently killed, and a great celebration made of the revenge, but it brought no great decrease in anxiety, as "experts" reported that many were ready to take his place as instigators of terrorism, or already have. These experts come, for the most part, from the growing "terror/surveillance industry", the major growth area in the US Economy. Various defense contractors have rushed into the opportunity created by this fear to develop a commercial network of surveillance and analysis of information supposedly making the society safer from terrorism, but certainly enriching themselves and feeding the general fear as a basis for sustaining the industry. The endless pundits who rush to the news media whenever a potential terrorist event is reported are part of their marketing efforts. And it is all paid for by taxpayer dollars. (PBS recently aired a review of this industry based on the work of Washington Post Investigative reporters.) This process is not the agenda of any political party. Torture and rendition occurred in the Clinton administration. It was vastly expanded and confused in the Bush years. And though Obama ran on the commitment to protect Constitutional Rights, no sign of any significant change has occurred in his administration to date. The extent to which individual privacy of the US Citizens has been systematically abridged is, in some ways, more terrifying than the threat of terrorism itself. This encroachment on fundamental liberty both of all US citizens, and especially of Americans of Middle Eastern origins is a long term destructive effect of 911 which shows no sign of correcting and if anything is heading us toward the paranoid world of the Cold War and the McCarthyism of the 1950s (or the more terrifying world of Orwell's 1984). 

 Have we dealt with the potential economic consequences? Coming into 911, the US economy was struggling with the fallout of the "dotcom bust". 911 imposed a second assault to the already weak economy. Measures were taken to help the economy rebuild. We now understand that those measures unrealistically expanded credit and the money supply to temporarily and falsely elevate the capacity of lower middle (and some poverty level) income buyers to contract for mortgages, and then sell the resulting credit, as if it were traditional mortgage investments. In retrospect, an organized system of exploitation of the economic system was developed by financial managers ("wall st") who personally enriched themselves in the process. Some of them understood that this was unsustainable and hedged their companies for protection, while the others, including most major banks, did not, and were caught in a crushing collapse of "toxic asset" capitalization. This was a consciously engineered bubble (Ponzi scheme?). And in the end, the American taxpayer is faced with having to support the de-leveraging of this fiasco, while the engineers of the process have walked off with rewards of hundreds of millions (to billions) of personal fortunes. The recent housing based economic crisis is, in part, a direct consequence of 911 along with the long term structural contractions of the US economy, roughly termed "globalization". Before 911, the developed nations were able to exploit their economic advantages over the under-developed or "developing" world. The inequities of the "north-south" economic disparities were in transition in the decade before 911. With "globalization" in developed countries, the lower tier of the labor market and middle tier of white collar labor was and is being devalued down to a level of world wide labor costs. At the same time, in underdeveloped regions like China and India there is substantial improvement in the economic position compared to the developed countries, and some in other developing nations as well. This is a shift of economic activity and benefits across borders, but in developed countries it is felt as a contraction. One would expect that this would lead to terrorism in these countries, and may eventually do so, but in the meantime we have the classic rebellion of rising expectations: namely, middle classes in developing countries recognize how much better off they would be without the impositions of the G8 and this is a major feeder for terrorist activities. 

The source in fundamental Islam would suggest that the fighters are opposed to all economic development or change. But the recruits are drawn from mostly middle class youth in countries with dictatorial rule and economic stasis. The US focus on tracking down a few terrorist leaders completely misses the problem of rising expectations and economic instability, with the result that the "Arab Spring" has undermined most US allies in the region. All those who preached NAFTA and etc are now reaping the whirlwind of rapid and unstable economic changes. The US response to this is fundamentally wrong. The fundamental issues of north/south economics must be prioritized, instead of concentrating on a hardline imperialist approach. 

 We will never know how much 911 was a reaction to US attempts to dominate the oil production of the Middle East. But the US reaction to 911was an invasion and attempt to secure the control of Iraq's oil production, and prevent a Russian pipeline through Afghanistan, which are a matter of public record. After two wars and a failed effort to recover from the economic changes occurring across the world, the US is in a much worse position economically than before 911. Nothing has been learned here either. 

 How has the US position as a world leader fared? At the time of 911, the US supposed itself to be the new Roman Empire. A NYT magazine cover even headlined this. ("Pax Americana"). We had "won" the first Gulf war almost without a fight, against the supposed greatest army in the middle East. (No matter that they failed to sustain in a recent war against Iran, which we helped support.) English was the commanding language of business and culture across the internet and around the world. US culture in the form of exported media was in great demand and copied or pirated everywhere. Then in 911, a dramatic reversal: The US is vulnerable to using its own technology against it! The US could counterattack the safety zone of the attackers, but not control the complex ground wars of irregular combatants in either country. It is sinking toward another "military Vietnam" now in two countries, and that, despite even more high tech tools of war. US has become fearful and defensive of others coming to study in its universities and working in its country. 

 And it is confused about its alliances, turning its back on old alliances with Europeans, to favor a "coalition of the willing", ie mostly minor nations who curried favor with the US by symbolic support of its military efforts. Rather than the Roman empire, the US is becoming more like the ineffectual Chinese empire before its collapse before barbarian invaders. We have not learned important lessons from 911 about tempering our role in world affairs and how to make ourselves safer by our alliances. The culmination of this error emerged in the Spring of this year, when the "Arab Spring" resulted in popular rebellions in many of the Middle Eastern countries whose dictatorships we had been supporting in the supposition that they would be our best allies in the war against terrorism. Dictators who feared rebellion in their own countries. Did no one in the State Department remember the Shah of Iran? In the words of the great political theorist, Yogi Berra: "its deja vu all over again." No use crying over spilt milk. We have flubbed many chances to learn from 911 in the past 10 years but must recover and move on. 

 Each of these areas offers something to learn from 911: 1) our fear of terrorism cannot be managed by expanding the surveillance of our citizens and creating a loss of civil rights in the name of security. This only leads to a paranoid society that eventually distrusts its government and rebels! The country must be reunited and committed to the MUTUAL TASK of making the country safe. Not delegating it to some supposed agency in Washington spending billions on who knows what. 2) The power and stability of our country depends on its economic stability. This means that "welfare to work" must be instituted in meaningful form. During the 1930s some of the major achievements of our society, including the Hoover Dam and Golden Gate Bridge were built. Maybe we do not need to build physical edifices, but we need to find ways to employ our citizens to improve our infrastructure while it is affordable to do so. There will be a lot fewer robbers in prison if they are working to rebuild the society in some way before they ever get to prison. (Prisons, after all, are a particularly inefficient, socially destructive, and expensive form of welfare.) 3) The US must learn from its recent diplomatic and military fiascos that being the most powerful country in the world DOES NOT MEAN that you are entitled to tell every other country what they should do for you. Diplomacy did not change to dominance because we were attacked on 911. And our failures in diplomacy are making another attack more likely. At the end of the Cold War, the US viewed itself as a Superpower antagonist. And in policy Washington continues to look for its opponent (missing) Superpower enemy, instead of developing a new and more relevant international identity.

DISCOVERY OF CA: FIRST VISIT TO THE DESERT (REDUX 3/8/2011)

     We are in a little cinder block room in a motel on the edge of Joshua tree.  We look out onto sandy desert for miles and in the distance the mountains of the park.  The trip so far has been a great adventure.  We drove out  to an old citrus grove that has been made into a state park near Riverside  in an area that used to be entirely in citrus fruit. The acreage  has gone down substantially to make room for more people, but the total acreage, according to our guide at the park, has gone up in CA mostly in the inland valley farther north. 80% of CA crop was eating fruit as opposed to FLA which is almost all juice oranges. I think this may be the moisture etc, but the main significance for me is that it was necessary to be more careful about fruit quality out here. Also shipping eating fruit is more difficult and it seems that much less is shipped east now. Having navels more of the time is one of the nice benefits of living out here. The experience of the park was seeing what rows of orange trees look like.  These groves were owned by landholders who lived on them in nice homes surrounded by citrus trees.  All the planting,  maintenance,  watering, and harvesting were managed by a farming company,  who took the larger % of the sales and the smaller went to the landholder.  This was the typical way of financing the groves throughout Orange County and east to Riverside.  Most of the landholders were retirees from the midwest.  The park itself had little else, the owners house was still there but not open to tourists.
     On the way there we stopped in Redlands. It is a small town in the "inland empire" on the edge of the San Gabriel Mtns, which was a wealthy residential area at the turn of the century. Kimberly Crest is a small mansion in Redlands and a pleasant short tour. I had expected a place something like the mansions in Pasadena but it was much less:   a nice frame Victorian on a hill looking out at Mt Baldy with a snow cap. At 5 bedrooms or so, it was not big, and had been owned by the head of Kimberly Clark when he retired from the company. Why he didn't build a bigger place or live in Pasadena we didn't hear and didn't feel comfortable asking the tour guide! Their daughter's husband died early in their marriage and the daughter lived there the rest of her life and became involved in the local women's college Scripps and was briefly the interim president.  And she had been a Smithie! So J was quite pleased with the discovery.
     The house did have all sorts of gaming stuff, etc, and despite the elegant downstairs furnishings, which suggested parties and social activities, there was a 50s TV, and a 40s radio between the bedrooms on the second floor and it appeared that this was the main center of family life! It gives a sense of the formality and isolation of the society in this region. Not truly rural for it had roads, railroads, etc, but still very isolated from the rest of the cultural world.  Then we drove back to Riverside and checked into the Mission Inn which lived up to its rep!  It is an old rambling set of buildings, originally a small hotel done in Mission Style Spanish Colonial style to capitalize on the popularity of a Spanish revival in the teens created by the book Ramona by Helen Hunt Jackson. No one in the gift shop had heard of Ramona and the annual staging of a pageant play is done in Hemet, which is quite a distance away.   The hotel was filled with quirky details: a carillon that played every hour with a mechanical set of moving figurines European style, large patios one of which was decorated in the appearance of a Church exterior (though I dont think there was really a space inside for a service though I think weddings are held there).  There is a wall of Mexican style beaten copper "wings" to honor famous airmen of the 20s to 40s who had stayed there and a long list of presidents and celebrities who had stayed there, too. The "President's lounge" is a bar with a big picture of Nixon since he had supposedly was married there, and it seemed like the place a couple from Whittier would think was a "really swell place" to get married.   Dinner in the Mission Inn Restaurant was an average overpriced meal served at tables outdoors in a courtyard that was surrounded by Spanish style walls with handing twinkling "star lights".  It was movie set surreal! But fun. We had a large nice room off the courtyard that was great.
     Saturday we drove around Riverside. We were staying in a main downtown tourist strip which included a River park and a large building, The Ca Museum of Photog, which had modest show of contemporary photographers and is owned and run by UC Riverside. It has an adjoining art gallery which had a conceptual art show, and seemed also to be under the direction of UC Riverside too. The main town is maybe 20 by 50 streets on the east side of the 91. It is backed by a hill and there is another small residential town beyond that, and of course the town is set beside the Santa Ana River.  There are large mountains in the distance, the San Bernardinos that form a backdrop to the city.
We wanted to see UC Riverside and finding it was a trick. It is on the other side of the 91, set against a 2000 or so foot mountain, and very sprawling.  There does seem to be a central campus, but surrounding it are bunches of apartments and most of the students live in these instead of dorms (saving the state the cost of the dorm real estate in the construction and maintenance) and diffusing the campus. Close to the main campus is the typical student centered shopping mall, also recently built, and looking like any typical CA mall. Spreading out from the campus toward the road was an increasingly low income neighborhood and it seemed that the town had gone to great pains to isolate itself from the students. There was not a sense of a close integrated campus, which J said was also typical of Irvine, another recently build campus. Building new university settings in contemporary real estate markets must be economically challenging for the state, and it must depend on land gifts for it to be possible. And these are not going to be the most valuable land!
    Then on to Palm Springs. The first stop was at the dates store in Cabazon just before the outlets. We bought some dates, though the fruit quality was mixed. We also had our first "date shake" a combo of vanilla ice cream and blended dates which is a gastronomic marker of coming out to the desert for Californians of the last generation. (We had bought a bag of cara cara oranges in a stand near the orange grove park, and are starting to get the feeling for eating off the land as you travel in CA!) We went into the outlets in the morning and got a wedding gift, and some stuff for ourselves, another ritual of the traveling Californian. The malls are built on Indian land and a big moneymaker for them,  along with the casino down the road.  It was hotter than I expected it would be! It would be hard to do much out here but shop in AC malls!
    Then we drove on to Palm Springs itself which is about 20 minutes east of the Cabazon outlet malls. First stop was the art museum there. It is a small building will several small collections mostly contemporary stuff, and  a large exhibition show gallery which had a show of Baldessari's prints which capture a lot of his verbal/conceptual art, which has become a major element of contemporary art. It was a good show for illustrating the range of his ways of viewing the world, and of using materials of contemporary media. He was born and worked entirely in CA and is a true native spirit in many senses. Along with Ruscha he is a major CA art figure. It gave me a better appreciation of that approach, cf also Heinecken, along with a sense of why this would be central to CA: it comments directly on the consumer marketing culture of this place.  A visit to Moorten's cactus gardens after lunch proved to be a bust. An old house with a yard filled with cactus plants that someone had lovingly collected and organized many years ago, but which had gone to seed and not been well maintained in the subsequent years and was now a minor tourist attraction. Parking on the street! Oh well. This is the other side of tourist CA: little oddities that were the inspiration for someone or other wanting to turn their hobby into an income producer. In this case, it was a botanist with a special interest in cactus who went about collecting them and keeping examples in his front yard.
    The drive out of Palm Springs on the 62 goes up a dramatic hill to begin the climb to the high desert.  29 Palms Inn is a jumble of small cabins mainly duplexes at the edge of the Joshua Tree National Park. There is some scruffy development around the area that supports a giant marine base further east (inland). The hotel had a small restaurant next to the pool,  with white table cloths that tried to be upscale but really couldn't manage, and a singer and trumpet player "band" for Saturday night which appeared to be the major local entertainment.  It was pretty crowded with folks with short haircuts who looked to be out of the base.  We went back to our little room and played cards for a while and then watched part of SOMETHINGS GOTTA GIVE on TV. (It does have great comic timing, and great dialog. And it is the most annoying middle-aged-woman centric viewpoint, which J loved.)
   Sunrise in the desert is beautiful even in this scruffy little enclave.  And the air is clean and pure. After breakfast at the place which was ample and free, we drove into the park and soon saw the main feature of the northwest end: giant boulder piles and the Joshua Trees. A 20 minute drive on park roads to Hidden Valley offers an easy trail through the rocks that J and I could do and both enjoyed the incredible variation in boulder formations. Meanwhile groups of rock climbers were up on the rocks trying to get some climbing experience. This is prime country for them because the rock is all granite. We drove past a series of great rock formations and an array of large joshua trees. There wasnt much blooming in this northern/western part. Too early for that. Then on to Key's View: a drive to lookout that gives you a wide view of the coachella valley, Mt San Jancinto, etc. The wind was blowing at least 30 mph and it was dramatic. You can see the San Andreas fault line clearly across the valley. (This created the park effects by causing granitic rock to form, creating the two opposing mountain lines and then opening the space for the granitic rock to break through.) Then on to White Tank, more boulders,  and a small rock arch on a short trail, and sat to eat lunch on some rocks. By now the wind was quite strong 10-15 mph even down on the plain, though it was warm and I wasn't feeling cold. The Northern Western side has an array of these strange trees, in the Yucca family, which sprout odd angled leaf groups and blossoms on jagged branches. They are like nothing else you can imagine in a tree. There is a modest ground cover of cacti, etc, but the rest is mostly rock and desert dirt. There is about an hour and a half drive down to the South Eastern side which goes through a cactus forest and extensive low desert with broad views of mountains in the distance.  There are lots of off road trails for driving and hiking.  That will be another time.  We came out at the level of the Salton Sea! A place to check out next time too.  It was a short but sweet visit to the park.
    We rode back on the 10 to Palm Springs to find our motel for the night: Ingleside Inn. This is a 1950s motel (that is probably from the 50s) in the heart of "old Palm Springs" up against the mountains and a stream. The room looked like the classic 50s motel room that someone from MAD MEN in CA would take his secretary or girlfriend to for the afternoon. The old bellman and woman at the desk seemed the type to ask no questions and the cars out front were all very fancy! Dinner was at Melvyns which is part of the motel and has a faux fancy tone with a formal maitre d' despite the small size of the restaurant. It was a totally faux.. experience! And we were the youngest people in the place except for a couple that came in who did not appear to be a "real couple".
     Palm Springs grew beyond a minor desert stopover to a fancy residential location in the 50s when Hollywood stars moved here to get away from the hustle and air pollution and enjoy the warmer Winters. Beyond that it had no real reason to develop but the housing market boom developed it anyway! Retirement homes and second homes and timeshares for golfers in the Winter and Desert fanciers were built almost willy-nilly as part of the great CA real estate boom of the 60s-80s. PS and environs illustrates one challenge of the CA economy. You gather a mass of people, with limited economic productivity except for serving each other. This provides a sustainable but not a growing economy. So you must find some other basis for growth. The first answer is to invite tourists to enjoy the splendid climate or whatever the region claims. Even a new convention center might be the basis. Then you do new construction for the people who will want to have second homes or move here. Then after all the real estate boom subsides, you realize there is not enough economic activity to sustain the  construction, and the developers move on and leave a declining economic shell for a series of "hermit crab" people to occupy.  In 20 or 30 years the area may sustain and develop a core community.  If not, it becomes one of the many ghost towns in the West that grew up around a boom of gold or water or something, and then dried up, leaving the empty buildings behind.  And that is what we see in most of PS: empty buildings and old tourist accomodations.
     The next stop on this adventure was Idyllwild. This is a little town at 8000 feet, almost on the peak of Mt San Jacinto (13000). The plan was to do the tramway first to get to the North side of the mountain and views, but we decided to go straight to Idyllwild and skip the tramway, both because J is deathly afraid of the tramway, and it was windy and might not even be running (actually it is probably pretty well screened in that valley).  It didnt make much sense to ride up, take a brief walk, ride down and then drive up all over again. This was a good decision because the ride up takes a while and would not have been good in the sunset or dark. Also, it was so cloud covered and rainy that we wouldn't have seen much from the tramway.
   The road up to Idyllwild is one of those CALTRANS miracle roads that skirts the edge of the lower mountain and has some excellent views of the valley on the way.  It is a twisty turning affair, made worse by wind gusts that kept me focused the whole way up.  It plateaus at about 3500 feet and there are a bunch of horse farms. Then you cut off on a second road that goes up to Idyllwild. This is a scrubby little western town, just a bunch of wooden cabins,  and a few stores plus a long row of b & bs to stay. It connects to the walking trails of the state park and on to Mt San Jacinto but it would be a very long way to the top, the faster by far to go by the tramway.  A lot of the peaks in the state are set up for day hike pitches. (Whitney usually takes two days with a camp over.) This is to minimize the need for mountain camping with its special equipment needs, its littering, and excess physical demands on the hiker. The tram makes this possible on Mt San J.
    The town was in fog, with residual snow from a 24" dusting last week. it was the first snow I had seen in a year and the first really cold damp weather. The contrast from being in the desert the day before to being on a pine clad mountain top was amazing. (The road is called the Palms to Pines highway.)  We checked in early at the b&b which was a wood clapboard affair but pleasant. There dont seem to be any marketing chains up here: too remote. We had lunch at one recommended spot: Cafe Aroma: a funky food joint that was loaded with locals. Then came back to the room. The walk was a strain at 8000 feet with no adaptation time! Then a nap, and dinner at Mountain House: a couple run this from Riverside an hour and half drive away. Good food simply prepared. Nice wine.  And we had made a reservation but were the only people in the place on Sunday night!  The quality was much better than Melvyn's but simpler too.
     This was the end of the adventure.  The next day we did the descent down to Hemet and back to the freeways and home.  A quick tour of the various adventures of the desert and lots to come back to.