Monday, March 22, 2021

A SIMPLE GUIDE TO FINDING MEANING IN LIFE

 To live with some intention, each person must find a meaning for his or her life.  Without this meaning life becomes just a series of automatic biological actions,  endlessly repeating.
1. The most common meaning is survival, to find enough to eat and avoid predators and natural disasters successfully.  This is the most basic level of life,  and one that still is the basis for many lives in this country despite the accumulated wealth of the entire country.  Components of the economy contribute to this level of meaning,  and can have significant economic rewards for doing so.  Agriculture and farming, manufacturing and production of goods,  healthcare and production of healing substances, housing and construction, —-all these activities are important contributors to the basic level of survival.
2. The next most common meaning is to be part of a supportive social group.  This group may include family, local community, religious organization,  social organizations, or other groups which share common interests and values.  This is rarely in itself the only meaning a person experiences, but is a very important one as indicated by health measures, and the effort made to sustain it.  It has been terribly fragmented by the recent pandemic and quarantine.  All social and political activity is part of this level of meaning,  and is available to persons at any social or economic level depending on the structure and organization of the society.  
3. For many,  the meaning of life after survival becomes “living the good life”, which means some combination of choices about food, recreation, travel, home and accumulated possessions including clothing.  The definition of “good” varies with economic status, opportunities, ethnic and cultural values,  and personal choice.  But it always implies material accumulation of things. The wide range of this meaning from the exalted life of Pharaohs in Egypt and French 17th century kings to the limited options of minority choices in ghetto communities.  The increased sale of non-durable consumer objects for decoration or entertainment is the most obvious example of this lower end.  With the advent of digital communication, some of this has shifted to selection of digital choices,  which can be delivered by a consistent device, but vary in content.  Though more varied, there is no indication that this provides a “more significant” basis for meaning.
4. All religions provide the next level of meaning in life.  They combine three features:  1) a set of standards for interpersonal behavior in this world, 2) a solution to the questions of how the world came to be, and what happens to the person after death, and 3) a collection of socially ritual behaviors to reinforce commitment to these beliefs.  Religions like Communism provide a similar model,  as do cults and other variant forms.  It is tempting to scale religions along a measure of viability in evolutionary terms,  but the data suggest that other factors are also important.
5. The highest level for meaning in life is the ability to live a life that creates meaning about being alive in the world.  The traditional method for this is to participate in some aspect of arts and culture which articulates an expression of meaning in some formal aspect.  Although much of this can be “accumulated” in #3,  the creation of it goes beyond accumulation,  to a different level.

Everyone must choose the levels in which they participate,  and how they define meaning for themselves.  Failure to do this creates an empty automatic life which is experienced with despair.  On the other hand, an obsessive attachment to a particular mode of meaning,  as in obsessive collecting of specific objects, narrows the range of meaning and leads to emotional frustration in other ways.

Monday, February 15, 2021

FROM MADOFF TO TRUMP: the reality of the American Dream

    America was re-discovered by Europeans by mistake.  Every American school child is taught the story of Columbus' search for the gold and spices of the Indies by a new sea route only to land on an entirely different place.  The goal was riches and commercial wealth,  and in that respect the discovery has been realized many times over.  With the exception of small English religious orders escaping persecution,  everyone else has come to the America(s) in search of wealth and opportunity.  The goal is the same,  whether it is realized by growing sugar cane, extracting gold, discovering exotic spices (which mostly weren't there), or cultivating new land, the explorers were in search of wealth, and the American Dream has always been about wealth and success.

    The search for gold was not immediately successful in North America,  but more so in central.  Sugar became a major source of wealth in central and South America,  though only marginally in the North.  Plantation agriculture with the use of slaves became a source of wealth in southern US.  And when land on the east coast was significantly economically exploited,  pioneers moved West,  motivated by gold discovery in California,  and other metals in western mountains.  The eastern region became a center for manufacture and production of large and small goods,  with patents providing the opportunity for wealth.  Railroad monopolies, and oil monopolies,  coal, and iron and steel, all contributed to creating the "Robber Barons" of the late 19th and early 20th century.  Do not forget film and media production in the west as a dream of success.  And a new dream of wealth was created in the west by semiconductors,  technology, computers, and the internet. And a new cadre of extremely wealthy were created in the 1990s-2000s.

    What is the next dream?  How do individuals become wealthy and fulfill the American Dream in the 21st century?  There are indications from events occurring in the late 20th century.  The collapse of the economy in the 1990's was the result of a typical technology bubble,  the "dot-com internet bubble" and the errors of investors.  This was a typical "tulip mania" of excess investing,  seen with most technology development in capitalism,  like the railroads,  etc.  But the solution to reviving the economy was a new approach to stimulation by creating "investment products",  the mortgage speculation, and associated aggregated mortgage investments, which resulted in a repeat bubble and bust by 2008.  

    For most of the 20th century,  wealthy individuals had used investment strategies to maintain the value of the income they created in the primary businesses they developed.  Much of this was based on the consistent value and return of corporate bonds and other bond investments,  which held relatively stable value because of the stability of interest rates over much of this era.  But the "monetary theory" economists proposed significant manipulations of interest rates to stimulate economic growth,  and the stability of bond investments was undermined.  What happened next is a warning signal for the future of the economy.

    Evidence accumulated that ordinary investment strategies are not much more stable than the average indexes themselves, and rarely "beat" the indexes.  And bond investments became speculative as interest rates varied because bond values are inverse to rates.  Suddenly, there was no clear path to preserving wealth for the wealthy. (Or anyone else seeking a "retirement".)  A series of investment advisors entered this gap,  proposing that using complex investment strategies,  they could "hedge"  the ups and downs of the markets and protect the investor from risk.  Naturally,  this offer came at a high price and was only realistic for the very wealthy.  No one seemed to notice that these advisors had not protected anyone from the 2008 or 1990s busts,  but they claimed to have a new strategy that would prove itself.  Money flocked to these advisor's "hedge funds" after the dot-com bust.  Since then,  no data documents the enhanced outcome of the average of the funds, and specific funds that seemed to be highly successful use insider trading or other illegal methods to boost returns.  Despite this,  the funds remain highly invested,  particularly in regions like Dallas where there is a pool of wealthy individuals and a strong sense of speculation.

    Bernard Madoff entered this scenario as an investment advisor promising to guarantee returns to his investors.  Though his company had started in the 1960s,  it did not begin to surge until after the dot-com bust,  and grew in funds until 2009 when the reality of his manipulations as a ponzi-scheme were revealed.  He had been creating false statements of investment return for clients,  and used new investment money to cover older client payouts,  with overall poor market returns.  This strategy collapsed in 2008 with the recession created by mortgage manipulations, causing many of his clients to want to suddenly withdraw their investments,  which were gone.  Madoff worked out of the NYC area,  was an established brokerage company,  was evaluated by the SEC, and had mostly wealthy well education clients.  How had he succeeded in fooling so many for so long?  The answer is that he understood the fear behind the American dream:  that money is not stable over time and that somehow you must secure it to hold onto it.  Like "hedge funds" he promoted his "strategy" for protecting income,  though unlike "hedge funds" which were not always successful,  he seemed to be.   And the need for some form of economic security is the enduring, underlying fear of a strong capitalist economy,  and the less the individual is protected by social system measures,  the stronger the fear.

    Madoff's fraud demonstrated two important lessons: 1) Americans will go to any length to protect the future of their money,  and the wealthier they are,  the more desperate to protect it!  and 2) There is no financial scheme or product,  "hedge fund" or ponzi-scheme that will provide a guarantee.  

    The result of the collapse of 2008 has been several terrible trends in the US economy that threaten its future stability:

1) The wealthy are desperate to get even wealthier, not trusting any scheme to protect their wealth but accumulating more of it.  This opposes taxes, and other redistribution to poorer citizens and has exaggerated the wealth inequality.

2) The fantasy of magical financial manipulations that will"stabilize" ones wealth has now been transferred to the government itself, and the search for,  and belief in, some financial method that will allow deficits to turn into government equity is being debated everywhere.

3) The poor drift farther and farther into fantasies like lotteries and casino returns,  get rich fraud schemes,  fake education ploys, and the plethora of ways that moderately wealthy people exploit the very poor.   And as a great they are becoming more desperate and hopeless.

4) Lower middle class individuals,  someone with a house, or rental, and marginal work as long as they are healthy, are now at extreme risk of drifting into the class of poor and losing any hope of a future.

    All these statements are true.  In this environment,  candidate Trump promised to solve the problems by blaming the situation on immigrants (who were taking away jobs of the poor),  the Chinese (who were profiting on our failure to manufacture on this continent and provide jobs), and expensive health insurance (while planning to eliminate it entirely!).  His solution was to cut taxes to the wealthy, making it easier for them to follow their delusion that increased wealth would protect them, and pretend to encourage return of manufacturing to this continent by putting tariffs on Chinese goods,  which mostly reduced the Chinese use of US farm goods, and increased the cost of the consumables (that are destroying the economy).  He also blamed policies of environmental protection which reduced the profit of various industries, including the oil industry,  though these industries were not the major offshore problem!  

    These have all failed and he is no longer president.  The new economic team will have to struggle with the same economy he faced, and the distortions he caused in failing to address the problems.  But the biggest challenge by far is the failure of the American Dream:  Wealthy people no longer have any confidence that their wealth protects them,  and have become obsessed about how rich they must become, (what shelters they must build to prepare for the revolution).  And everyone else is noticing that the dedication to working consistently at a productive job is not available to most,  and does not lead to a secure if modest life.   Between 10% and 15% of Americans live in poverty now by our own country's definition,  and probably another 20% are one disaster away from bankruptcy and homelessness.  The homeless rate per 10000 in the US is higher by far than any other developed economy. 

    THE AMERICAN DREAM HAS BE DESTROYED.  IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW OR IF IT CAN BE REBUILT.  TO DO ANYTHING IT IS NECESSARY TO FACE THE REALITY THAT IT IS NOT CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL.

    

Sunday, February 7, 2021

REFLECTIONS ON SUPERBOWL SUNDAY

It is almost time to begin watching the "Superbowl", a premiere sporting event of the United States.  

What is this special event and why is it important?  It is the annual competition between two American football teams which have played a season of previous games and each ended as the winner of their respective league competitions.   No such game existed until 1967,  when after several years of two separate leagues,  a game was staged between the NFL and AFC.  Why were there separate leagues?  Because the owners of the NFL teams to prevent competition were initially unwilling to expand their league to include other cities.  And so a separate group of teams were formed by new owners seeking the economic rewards of owning a team.  The birth of the superbowl is the acceptance that new teams would be allowed to compete with the old,  and the attempt to control the size of the league and its reward,  rejected.  As with most things in the United State,  it is about money.

Whose money?  The owners of the teams collect revenues by selling the right to watch the games from ever more expensive and tricked out stadiums from fans,  though most of these fans are extremely wealthy,  not everyday folks.  But in this season,  with covid, the fan revenue is not significant (though in other seasons it has fallen from 20 to15% of total), and the greater revenue from television presentation is the most important.  Televising sports is about selling products,  mostly fast foods,  automobiles, and a few other inessential products.  So the players and coaches receive salary (contracts)  paid by the teams  (as employees),  which come from the fan + TV revenue income paid to each team.  The teams also must pay for various other expenses,  including stadium rental use, and the rest goes to the owners.  Every team is ridiculously profitable,  and every one seeks to be an owner.  So despite enormous payouts to premium players,  owning a team is still very rewarding to owners.  Part of this is the result of not having to build or own the stadiums,  which are usually the property of the local cities,  paid for through tax assessment of the residents of the cities,  whether they can afford to attend the games in stadiums or not.  So the answer to "whose money" is simply US.  The fans pay for the performance of the games through sponsoring the stadiums,  buying the products of advertisers,  and direct payment for season tickets.  At one time,  little of this went to the players but with strikes and collective bargaining,  the players have been able to negotiate an increased component of the total revenue,  now 48.8%.  

Some complain that the players have become too wealthy, too rewarded, for playing 17-20 games in each Fall season.  This ignores the reality that every NFL player began training in sports as a teenager,  made major decisions about training and body development to physically qualify,  ignoring dedication to time for other facets of education. Each went through a competitive college drafting process (not called that),  and risked one to four years of college play endangering key physical body injuries that might end any chance of a professional career before it started.  Most of these players are not skilled enough despite this training and preparation for professional competition and have wasted and injured themselves to prepare for lives they will never have.  Estimated 1.8% will become NFL players.  "The average NFL career lasts 3.3 years, according to the NFL Players' Association; 78 percent of players go broke within three years of retirement and 15.7 percent file for bankruptcy within 12 years of leaving the league, according to a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research." (ESPN evaluation)  The desperate outcome of this dedication does not account for the injuries that leave many mentally and physically incapacitated.  The few highly paid,  economically advantaged star players are the absolute minority.

We viewers have paid our way to watch, usually on TV,  a group of men highly selected by personal training and physical capacity battle each other for one hour extended with various time outs and advertising time,  to state for one year that they are the "best" team, and each collect a special "ring".  The goal of this will be to financially benefit the owners,  perhaps advertisers, and to a limited extent a few players, the rest of whom will be consumed in the process within a few years.

IS THIS AN IMPORTANT ASPECT OF HUMAN LIFE?  DOES THIS REPRESENT A VALID USE OF SPORTING ACTIVITY,  ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO EUROPEAN SOCCER,  AMERICAN BASEBALL AND BASKETBALL, AND CANADIAN HOCKEY--- ALL SPORTS WITH BETTER RECORD OF SUPPORT OF PLAYERS,  AND LESS EXPLOITATION?

The "Superbowl" is a competition created by the economic competition between two "leagues" eventually merged to one,  but continuing to pretend that some major event is occurring for the benefit of revenues, and viewership.  When will it be time to look seriously at this destructive program? 

Saturday, January 30, 2021

January 6th 2021: A day that will live in infamy.

 

    The events of the last 24 hours have been both horrible and encouraging. The pathetic insurrection attempt by Trump followers to disrupt the certification of the election by congress was expected. The only explanation for the lack of strong police presence was that the president interfered with protecting the congress. Our country has been shamed by a deranged self obsessed person who sees only his needs in any transaction.  The fools who performed this insurrection will face consequences and he will abandon them as he has anyone he no longer needs. This was a planned action that probably dates to the time that the Attorney General Barr resigned (or before).  Video circulating of him with family and friends happy and excited to observe the looming chaos reveal the utter shallow and empty quality of the person and his family.
    The persisting failure of joint congressional leadership to counter his disruption has been discouraging but there were hopeful signs yesterday in the joining together to complete the process of certification, in the face of a mob trying to block it. The American Democracy has survived, barely, and needs major repairs, not just on the damage to the capitol building, which is symbolic. Some in the congress now realize the dangers the country faces, and will withdraw their support from his lies and incompetence. They will need to move forward to redefine their party.
    A remaining group of congressmen (and women)continue to support the lies and unreality of the Trump position in hopes of capturing his remaining supporters for their own political advantage. Trump's supporters deserve a voice in the country that does not exploit them and addresses their real needs, not their fantasies. None of the individuals who spoke to oppose the certification have any other interest but their own political future, and will betray these people again. 
    History will tell if this day was the harbinger of a period of repression and dictatorship in a former democracy which became a "banana republic", or whether there are enough individuals who value the opportunities inherent in democracy to protect and preserve it.  I hope to be one of the latter.

Friday, January 8, 2021

CHALLENGES FACING THE NEW ADMINISTRATION

Washington is totally broken.  Trump et al must be replaced and something done to repair the government.  Some of this will only come through voting in new members of congress.  And this can only happen effectively if the CITIZENS UNITED decision of the Supreme Court is overturned by new legislation and challenges.  The control of the political process by the wealthy is enabled by the Citizens United decision. (This was a case brought by xxx about financing a movie!)

COVID  The pandemic sweeping the country must be accomplished by a unified national plan integrated by each state including protective isolation practices,  and effective vaccine distribution.  The fantasy that vaccines alone will quickly end the pandemic must be dispelled or it will encourage risky behavior and only extend the problem. 

 ECONOMY The apparent illusion that we had an effective economy was destroyed by the covid pandemic.  It is worth taking a moment to understand this.  The major impact of covid is on close contact business:  travel, crowd events and theme parks, restaurants, in person malls and shopping,  etc.  Over half the work force was thrown into unemployment and has recovered only about 2/3rds.  Is this the basis of a long term valid economy?  We have become a country which spends its money on disposable consumer items,  streaming media,  and low caloric value foods.  The streaming world "saved" our entertainment,  but isolates us into fantasy worlds.  It is time to review the basis of the economy and make decisions that support new directions in employment and education.  Fighting China is a total waste of time.  Their giant labor pool encourages them to commit to manufacturing of consumer disposables and attempt to steal high tech knowledge.  We should focus on expanding and protecting our own skills and let them emphasize what the US has "off shored".  The tariff war was a good example of the stupidity of the current administration.

The reality is that the country is controlled by businesses that care nothing about the government or its integrity,  but only about their profits and the people and country will go down as a result.  They will blame it on Trump,  but Rome was overcome by the corruption within,  and could no longer defend itself.  This is how arrogant powerful countries always fail.

SECURITY  The fundamental assumption of US security has been based since the 1950s on nuclear power.  Attempts to limit new members to the "nuclear weapons club" have already failed and will continue to fail.  The only solution for nuclear weapons is a world wide monitored treaty for managing their production and control. The breaches of internet performed by Russia represent the new world threat emerging.  Interactive control and damage to essential infrastructure including military operations like drones are the new weapons and warfare.  And they impact noncombatants much more than traditional warfare.  The mentality of the US DOD and congress have not progressed to this understanding to the extent that some of our enemies have.  Countries with limited nuclear weapons will find other weapons faster.  US must be dealt with the whole internet security issue ASAP.

DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH  The overall focus of the economy must change, but it must also address the mal-distribution of wealth.  The richest country in the world throws away the most food,  has the most unoccupied housing,  and the highest level of poverty and homelessness per capita.  This is crazy and builds a community of the "discarded" that can only lead to political instability.  How stupid can leaders be not to see the dangers in this and continue to facilitate laws that favor inequality??? The economy is threatening a worsening spread and free fall and the markets are ignoring this but will soon feel the effects of the pandemic and unemployment.  States are out of money and will be unable to provide the basic services that they must provide.  Demanding that the FED compensate this can only be temporary and long term deficits catch up with every country.  The tax base will fall apart.  During the 1930s the availability of labor due to unemployment led to the CCC and much infrastructure development was accomplished at affordable levels including the Golden Gate Bridge and Hoover Dam.

INSTITUTIONAL RACISM  The history of the US, along with most other European and some Asian nations includes development using slave labor.  (It also included "indentured servant labor" different in preserving personal identity).  The Civil War was fought partly to address resolving the use of slaves,  and ended with an apparent resolution of slavery that was quickly undermined in Reconstruction.  Waves of new immigrants in the 1800s and 1900s came to claim their place in the society, while the African American role remained unresolved. The 1960s appeared to be a new development in Black political presence with the voting rights act,  but it too has been undermined.  Electing a partly ethnic African president only served to highlight the conflict, and Black Lives Matter will continue to be a challenge for the country.

TWO PARTY SYSTEM The desire to find Red states and Blue states is a simplification that obscures other important issues.  Different regions have different regional objectives and needs and attempting to parse them to one party or the other is very difficult.  The US is a regionally differentiated multi-issue society trying to simplify the problems into a two party system rather than a parliamentary multi-issue party system.  The solution has been to have each party pick the regions and issues it wishes to support,  which is no solution at all.  A new approach to political organization is needed.  The recent election in GA shows that a simple RED/BLUE definition is not correct and a new political calculus must be developed.

POTUS continuing to contest and manipulate about the election.  The events of the last 24 hours have been both horrible and encouraging. The pathetic insurrection attempt by Trump followers to disrupt the certification of the election by congress was expected. The only explanation for the lack of strong police presence was that the president interfered with protecting the congress. Our country has been shamed by a deranged self obsessed person who sees only his needs in any transaction. The fools who performed this insurrection will face consequences and he will abandon them as he has anyone he no longer needs. This was a planned action that probably dates to the time that the Attorney General Barr resigned (or before).
The persisting failure of joint congressional leadership to counter his disruption has been discouraging but there were hopeful signs yesterday in the joining together to complete the process of certification, in the face of a mob trying to block it. The American Democracy has survived, barely, and needs major repairs, not just on the damage to the capitol building, which is symbolic. Some in the congress now realize the dangers the country faces, and will withdraw their support from his lies and incompetence. They will need to move forward to redefine their party.
A remaining group of congressmen (and women)continue to support the lies and unreality of the Trump position in hopes of capturing his remaining supporters for their own political advantage. Trump's supporters deserve a voice in the country that does not exploit them and addresses their real needs, not their fantasies. None of the individuals who spoke to oppose the certification have any other interest but their own political future, and will betray these people again. 

 The magnitude of all these problems is astounding.  The country and our leaders have let problems build up for decades in administrations of both parties.  These cannot be solved in a year or even one administrative term.  But there must be a start to addressing them.  Americans are good at problem solving when they work together and good at starting wars when they don't.

THE UNITED STATES IS A FAILED COUNTRY

This article in current Atlantic Monthly captures half the story:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/what-trump-and-his-mob-taught-world-about-america/617579/

More important is what it taught America about itself. We have been lying to ourselves. If Americans want our country to be the fantasy we pretend that it is, we have a lot of work to do. For decades we have not lived the image projected by leaders and media. Now is the time for a reckoning and revision, or accepting that we have failed to realize the ideal "a country where all men are created equal" and that government "of the people, by the people, and for the people" HAS departed..

The mob that stormed congress was fomented by deranged leaders, and media promotion of conspiracy fantasies, but they were living in a country that has failed them and many others: 

This is a country in which income inequality has increased dramatically over the past decade to the point that there is little middle class left and expanding poverty and homelessness,  while a tiny fraction of the population gets enormously wealthy.  The true definition of a "banana republic".

Electing a partly ethnic African president activated the outpouring of persisting personal and institutional racism, and then the next president utilized this segment of society as a political stepping stone.  Black Lives Matter  issues were on full display when white domestic terrorists invaded the capitol and no significant police resistance was mounted.

In the previous election, citizens chose a reality TV fantasy president who voiced their anger and rage but is personally and intellectually incapable of leadership, exploits everyone for his personal gain and is unable to  acknowledge his own mistakes and failures, including the recent election.  

There is a long history of "pay to play government" at all levels in America, while leaders pretend it does not occur here and demean other "3rd world countries" for their graft and corruption.  America has been the go-to place for laundering money for decades with its "shell corporations" which have just recently been forced to reveal owners in a defense bill that Trump vetoed, and which WAS overridden.

The country is so dysfunctional that it was unable to manage a life threatening epidemic because so many don't want to give up their fun/freedom and because of its impact on the economy.  Leadership at many levels could not find a reasonable balance between saving lives and protecting economic security of the people.  And

Washington has become a "forbidden city".  A region where every sort of special interest goes to cash in on the government, i.e. taxpayers money, as facilitated by modern mandarins called "beltway bandits".  The excessive political role of the oil industry in political affairs has resulted in engaging America in two recent wars in the middle east with major destruction to the social, material and physical stability of the region,  with no significant benefit to our country.  This is the parallel of the wars Rome pursued which eventually led to its decline.

This is not a sudden change.  It is not clear when the government went off the rails, but the assassination of Kennedy was a beginning leading into the chaos of the country's response to the Vietnam war.  Nixon's efforts failed to stem the tide.  Carter was a saint, and saints have no role in politics.  The Reagan era brought an increased role of business interests, and the delusions of Republicans that this was the "golden age" because the Soviet Union was failing under its lack of leadership and the credit attributed to Reagan.  The Clinton presidency saw a bipartisan acceptance of "pay to play"   and increasing disregard for the middle class, despite the booming economy.  This is not a Republican Democrat issue, the Clinton's blurred that line.  It is about rich/poor and who is heard in the country.

The United States is a large geographical region with many subregions of special interests.  It would be difficult under any circumstances to govern and manage all the different interests.  This challenge encourages bureaucracy and Washington,  like China, Russia, and other very large governments, have enormous bureaucracies which ineffectively attempt to manage the people and interest groups.  Bureaucracy favors paranoid distrust and the emergence of social media has created a channel of communication for fanning this paranoid distrust. Social media did not create the paranoia, but it serves as a conduit for transmitting it rapidly.  Social media COULD be used to make government more transparent and bring citizens into more knowledge about the conflicts and negotiations being performed.  The major news media are now useless in this regard.  The major TV and paper news media are owned by large private corporations with strong interest in slanting the reporting and cannot perform the functions of the "third estate" reliably.


Monday, November 23, 2020

Fixing attitudes toward science in time of COVID

What is "science"? According to Wikipedia:  "a systematic enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge about the universe by virtue of testable explanations and predictions...Science is based on research, which is commonly conducted in academic and research institutions as well as in government agencies and companies."  This simple statement includes both the history of its development,  and the current range of procedures.  

The historical summary in Wikipedia includes: "Isaac Newton and Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz succeeded in developing a new physics, now referred to as classical mechanics, which could be confirmed by experiment and explained using mathematics (Newton (1687), PhilosophiƦ Naturalis Principia Mathematica). Leibniz also incorporated terms from Aristotelian physics, but now being used in a new non-teleological way, for example, "energy" and "potential" (modern versions of Aristotelian "energeia and potentia"). ...Where Aristotle had noted that objects have certain innate goals that can be actualized, objects were now regarded as devoid of innate goals... Leibniz assumed that different types of things all work according to the same general laws of nature," These historical observations capture two features of current practice:  the use of specific terms for objects, and mathematics as a descriptive language to describe rules.  During this time the pursuit shifted from exploration of natural events to practical applications.  Much of thermodynamics comes from observations boring cannon barrels. WIKI: "In Bacon's words, "the real and legitimate goal of sciences is the endowment of human life with new inventions and riches", and he discouraged scientists from pursuing intangible philosophical or spiritual ideas, which he believed contributed little to human happiness..."
     These are the two aspects of science: the methods of doing it, and its applications to the everyday world. The "scientific method" WIKI: "involves formulating hypotheses, via induction, based on such observations; experimental and measurement-based testing of deductions drawn from the hypotheses; and refinement (or elimination) of the hypotheses based on the experimental findings."   This is vague and general because the procedures of inquiry vary from one field to another,  but do usually start with a question which leads to an "hypothesis" or proposal from observations of the world.   "Why does so and so....?"  It must lead to answering the question by specific, repeatable observations.  Scientists test hypotheses by conducting experiments or studies.  And the outcome answers the question posed.  

There is a general agreement that science method is 1)a statement about the natural or material world 2)evaluated by a procedure requiring observation of an event(s) related to the statement. Some examples may help:
In astronomy, this may be a prediction of the occurrence of an event, the location of Jupiter from a vantage point in October, related to statements about the motion of objects in the solar system of objects in view, which can only be observed at infrequent intervals.  In astronomy, the events are observed but not controlled.  By contrast, physics can usually create an experimental controlled procedure for repeating the event described in the statement to make observations to compare with the predictions.  A simple example might be observing an object rolling on a surface and discovering the effect of friction.  A complex example might be the  acceleration of particles in a cyclotron which strike a target and deflect in predicted ways, (or do not).  The complex apparatus of the cyclotron is engineered according to other physical procedures to produce defined effects (forces) on the particles. The ultra-nuclear particles can only be observed by indirect measuring techniques,  subject to their own experimental methods.  Many observations in early studies in chemistry resulted from combining substances and observing changes of color or state.  But modern chemistry depends on highly complex reaction models and the identification of complex molecules based on response to electromagnetic radiation.  In modern scientific inquiry, a complex chain of assumptions and observations underlies the outcome of the experiment, which are subject to variable influences.   Even more complex and indirect procedures are needed for studies in biology, and with each level of complexity,  the potential for error increases and measurements must include statistical techniques for separating the observations from random statistical noise introduced in the observation procedures.  The idea of testing a statement about the world by techniques of observation does not change,  but the techniques become increasingly complex, and the observations are the result of complex features of the experimental situation.  This is not a theoretical statement but a practical statement about how modern science is done.  If an effort is made to repeat the observation,  the precise system of observation is required for the replication,  and the replication may fail if the conditions are not met.  Individuals who have never actively participated in scientific research beyond the controlled "labs" of high school or college courses do not appreciated this complexity, and assume that whatever is “discovered” by science is agreed upon by all scientists immediately or soon after,  and disagreements only occur when someone is “wrong”. 
      The observations discovered in “science” are applied in the applications of  engineering:  the breakdown of crude oil into petroleum products in refineries,  the effect of air flowing over curved surfaces to lift airplanes into the air, the creation and testing of pharmaceutical chemicals, etc.   In engineering applications,  allowances are usually made for a margin of safety, i.e. lift has added capacity for the  unexpected dangers in flight.   Crashing airplanes illustrate the reality that valid scientific principles can be applied in ways that are sometimes not reliably applied to achieve the predicted engineering outcomes.  This does not disprove the scientific principles but shows that they can be incorrectly applied, or that other factors intervene.
     The repeatability of observations in astronomy depends on the recurring events of various components in the solar system.  But many events of material objects on earth are not reliably repeatable.  An example are the algae tides that sometimes “bloom” on ocean shores.  They recur often enough to observe the correlation with other variables,  but not often enough to predict their next occurrence.  The repetition of the geyser “old faithful” has repeated on schedule for centuries,  but the timing of another geologic phenomenon,  the eruption of Hawaii volcanoes cannot be predicted with accuracy.  The inability to predict does not make science “fake”, but shows it's limitations.  When the observations cannot be made in a controlled laboratory setting,  determination of variables is more difficult; when events do not recur at regular intervals,  prediction of their causes is more difficult.
    An example is the assessment of global warming.   Observations of the rising temperature of the earth are confirmed by multiple sources,  and “global warming deniers” are generally persons who wish to deny the reality for personal economic reasons.  Evidence from tree and plant growth,  and geologic formations indicates that variations in the configuration and climate of the earth have varied over eons.  The current changes in global temperature do not validate hypotheses about what variables contribute to these changes.  Theories about the role of loss of the ozone layer,  and green house gases trapping heat provide possible explanations, but because global warming is not been a recurring event, and because the vast increase in green house gases is not known to have occurred on earth in the past, these cannot be validated with assurance.  Experiments have been designed which support the possible effects of these variables, but do not quantify their role over the earth.  It is stupid to deny the evidence of global warming, but defensible to claim the evidence for green house gas effects may not be the entire basis of the events.  May countries' scientists have concluded that this is likely to be a major cause  and so there is strong advocacy for reducing the production of these substances.        But this raises two problems: 1) how to generate the necessary energy for economic purposes without generating these gases,  and 2) will the reductions slow or reverse the changes in climate or is the process too far progressed into some cycle to be reversed?   Neither of these has a current scientific answer.  Efforts to promote one or another opinion are influenced by fossil fuel companies on one hand, denying their role to prevent curtailing the use of these fuels,  and on the other by environmentally sensitive scientists who believe that the data available is essential to saving the planet.
Nothing in this debate invalidates the accuracy of science as a method,  but indicates that scientists are human beings who can be influenced to state opinions about ambiguous information biased by their source of support.  As a group,  scientists are disappointed by the loss of respect that has emerged in the general public,  but this is the result of participating in political dialog,  advocating for a position, based on limited data,  and not acknowledging the advocacy position.  When scientists behave like politicians they are perceived to be politicians,  and science as an endeavor is degraded.

    Other examples can be found in sciences involved with human life and behaviors.  Is economics a science?  Economists can measure aspects of human behavior,  including the distribution of money as a variable in society.  Traditional theories define the expected human behavior of a group of individuals “rationally”(logically) attempting to benefit themselves.  But observation of real human behavior does not consistently fit these models,  and a modifying theory of “behavioral economics” has developed and been given a Nobel prize for recognizing the perturbations that must be considered.  Some of these effects can be predicted in advance,  but others are only identified by the failure of humans to perform according to abstract models.  The entire US economy has been modeled by computers,  which give fair predictive accuracy for short term future values, unless a significant unexpected event influences the economic situation.  As they say in investing “past performance cannot predict future results”.  Does this mean that economics does not have predictive value?  Sometimes the predictions are useful.  The unknown factors cannot be added in advance,  including certain human behaviors.   Economists are called on to advise governments about changes in policy,  and not surprisingly different ones provide advice that fits the expectations of different parties.  This reveals the ambiguity in data that does not have repeatability to confirm predictive statements.  Responsible economists would be clear about the limitations of their proposals,  but here again, when scientists behave like politicians they are judged as politicians.

    If scientists want to "rehabilitate" scientific activities as non-political events,  they must be clear about the limitations of data in political situations,  and avoid taking advocacy positions clearly supported and compensated by different advocacy groups or they must clearly state that their opinions are being supported by these groups.  The requirement for this disclosure has recently been applied to medical research reports funded by commercial sources. With the current polarization of our society,  it is possible that leaders may refuse to fund research that might not support their objectives,  or unrealistically fund projects that do with little hope of success.  So long as researchers are clear about the sources of funding and the observations made in research the scientific method is protected.  

     There are many ways of distorting scientific methods to create observations that are biased or limited.  Because the conditions of modern science often require complex arrangements of observations,  manipulating this situation may result in entirely different results.  Here the scientific procedure is being carried out,  but the influencing variables are being controlled in advance.   For example,  study of the effectiveness of a treatment on humans can be biased by how the patients and controls are selected.  It is very difficult to detect and manage this kind of manipulation of scientific procedures,  and results in "noisy" collections of studies pro- and con- a given determination which can only be sorted out by detailed analysis of the different procedures.  This INTENTIONAL misuse of experimental procedures to manipulate the outcome of studies is a fraudulent use of scientific method but hard to suppress.  It can only be managed by the combined efforts of the scientific community in the area of research being reported.

     Advocacy in science will not go away.  The current COVID-19 epidemic is a good example. Applying scientific results to practical situations is important and misuse is destructive and must be minimized.  Advocating positions based on ambiguous data is sometimes necessary and acknowledging the personal advocacy will clarify the interpretation.  Political leaders must make difficult decisions that impact the country,  and they should be interested in the best scientific accuracy they can obtain to help make the decisions.    Balancing the risks of infection, disability, and death, with the impact on the economy is a difficult problem.  Other epidemics have occurred and data collected, but this infection has its own special features, so there are no recurring events.  Balancing epidemiology and economic data on a real time basis to chart a course through the problem would be the rational approach.  One that our country has been unable to accomplish through failures of leadership,  despite the availability of the resources to do so.  Attacking scientists in this situation reflects the political need to avoid blame for failures,  but scientists must be careful not to overstate the validity of their advocacy.