Surfside South Tower: A tragedy of the commons.

    By now most Americans are aware that a portion of a high rise condo in Surfside Fla.  collapsed killing an unknown number of persons.  After the initial news reports of the dramatic image of the rubble,  and anguishing stories about missing family members,  the reports have proceeded to the phase of deciding who to blame.  Many of these stories may be placed by the various attorneys attempting to position their clients for defense or attack to claim compensation,  a story in itself,  but they fragment the issue into we-they, a false understanding of the situation.

    The facts as they appear to be emerging are: 1) Condo buildings were built near the ocean 40 years ago, to provide residence for persons wishing to have a Florida ocean view home. 2) The construction of the buildings was not questioned at the time, but appears to be inadequate for long term structural integrity.  3) Problems in the structure were identified and the condo owners notified at least 3 years prior to the collapse.  4) The owners are not financially comfortable with the extensive reconstruction needed to make the building (potentially) safe.  5) A new building going up nearby was setting foundations that influenced the shared ground of the building.  6) A similar situation exists for many buildings in this region,  putting pressure on the financial resources of the region.  The combination of these elements produced a human tragedy and potentially more to come.

    1) Many people have a desire to live by the ocean and have an ocean view.  South Florida has a long coastline with multiple opportunities for satisfying this desire.  Developers long ago realized that it would be necessary to build high rise structures to get the most return on construction on this expensive land.  How many people should be able to fulfill this wish?  This is complicated.  Should it be determined by who can afford it?  And what about the problem of the retired?  A large population of baby-boomer generation are retired and expecting to continue a self gratifying life style.  What should they expect?  How should the greater society plan for their needs?  This is a complicated issue because most of these persons who are retired seek an "affordable" solution to housing costs,  at a time of rising costs in most heavily populated areas.  Retiring in less desirable locations also incurs serious risks:  fires in Paradise Ca and much of the rural west,  tornadoes in parts of Texas and the Southeast,  and hurricanes on the Atlantic and gulf coasts.  The less expensive places are less expensive because they are less desirable, and have predictably more risk.  There are currently too many Americans alive to distribute all of us safely around the desirable habitations of the country.

    2) The construction of the condo complex 40 years ago had a specific purpose:  to provide more affordable units in a less prominent location,  for less wealthy owners.  The developers maximized their return against costs and sale of units in the usual formulas,  and there is no evidence to far that they were any more derelict in the design, construction, and pricing of the project than any other Florida developers of that era.  Florida is famous for fraudulent real estate speculation, and there is a "whatever it takes" attitude to get construction completed,  but the buildings were approved at the time, and no indication of construction issues raised.  But the buildings were not built for a specific duration.  Buildings do not last forever.  All materials deteriorate over time.  The typical course is for structures to gradually lose integrity and require more renovation,  with decreasing value,  until the value dips below the costs of maintaining the structure and it is demolished.  Someone(s) will always lose residual value when this occurs,  though it may be gradual over many owners,  or suddenly with the collapse of South Tower.  In recognition of the deterioration, the local government requires engineering re-evaluation every 40 years.  Is this a realistic time frame?  Does it need to vary with location?  Does it matter that 40 years ago,  rising sea level was not a serious consideration in construction in this area?  There are many reasonable questions that can be raised about the construction,  but not at the time of the construction.  These are questions about the process of estimating the extended value and integrity of every structure, which are generally ignored in the course of real estate development.

    3) Problems in the structure of the building were identified at least 3 years before the collapse, and the owners association was faced with an impossible challenge:  How can you get the condo owners to pay for a major retrofit of the structure of the building,  which will drastically increase their costs of ownership,  while probably reducing the overall value of the property?  

    4) The problem was magnified by the number of middle class and retired persons who do not have excess cash to put into the assessments.  The reports of intense conflict at the management meetings is the obvious result of an impossible conflict between the danger of the structure and the costs of its renovation.  It is easy in hindsight to wonder why the owners were so resistant,  but most owners in that situation would have balked,  and perhaps begun an effort to sell their condos.  Some did.  This is not a unique problem to this condo,  or condo complex.  Every condo arrangement will eventually require more and more costs of renovation,  and lower the value with age.  It is the financial basis of condo ownership to take advantage of the lower cost at the outset,  and sell at the peak,  before the integrity of the building declines.  This is generally not a realistic plan for persons who are retired.

    5) The role of nearby construction in disrupting the integrity of older buildings is always a question.  The individual projects do not have the data or responsibility for monitoring this risk.  The risk is regional and is the responsibility of the regional entity in charge of managing development.  In Florida, as in other regions with high real estate values,  the agencies responsible for monitoring development projects are strongly influenced by developers,  and by the political pressure to approve projects,  even when questions of danger arise.  If the nearby project had been delayed until the Tower buildings were reinforced,  a howl would arise over favoring one project over another,  and delaying growth of the region.  The ability to regulate growth in ways not entirely driven by economics is generally impossible in monitoring agencies.

    6) This monitoring problem extends to the greater region.  How many other buildings face the same vulnerabilities, and which are imminently or eventually destined for collapse?  Similar problems arise in earthquake zones,  and other vulnerable regions, but, even in very stable geologic areas,  structures deteriorate over time and must be replaced for safety.  Who has the authority to make and enforce these decisions?  Is it simply,  "Let the buyer beware."?  Someone paid over two million dollars for a penthouse in that condo structure in 2021.   

    These multiple issues combined to produce a terrible tragedy.  NO ONE OF THEM BY ITSELF IS THE MAJOR FACTOR.  Together they illustrate the problems of our current development strategies and the inability to manage them with the realities of human risk.  NO ONE WANTS TO.  Everyone wants their share of the prize, and for someone to make it available,  and not take it away.  This is the tragedy.

9 TASKS FOR 2001 (REDUX)

 

At the turn of the millennium, I made a list of the things I thought were most important to address in the coming decades, and called it "9 Tasks for 2001". They were:

1)    What is the alternative to money as the standard of value?

2)    How to reverse the breakdown of the family in the US?

3)    How to change the anomie of children and teens in our society?  How to revive education?

4)    How to contain spiritual values in American culture maintaining the separation of church and state?

5)    How to educate people to live healthful lives and change healthcare to respond to this?

6)    How to utilize new modes of communication to best serve society and the people in it?

7)    How to manage the impact of multinational corporations on society and limit their impact on American and world politics?

8)    What is the US role in world balance of power?  How to contain North/South relationships and the population bomb?

9)    How to sustain the ecology of the environment and still have economic stability?

Two decades and more have elapsed since this list was created and there are few signs of progress!

 1)    What is the alternative to money as the standard of value?  The development of blockchain and bitcoin technology is heralded as the "new money".  But this is simply about the "place keeping" role of money in the economic system.  Is there a greater value to life which includes economic survival but goes beyond this?  There is little indication that the US or world in general is ready to adjust to a new standard.

2)    How to reverse the breakdown of the family in the US?  The covid pandemic has increased awareness of the family by creating isolation and restrictions for family contact.  It remains to be seen if this will lead to more emphasis on family when the pandemic recedes.  Marriage rates are down, but so are divorce rates.

3)    How to change the anomie of children and teens in our society?  How to revive education?  Covid has been especially cruel on children and teens,  blocking their connection to each other and to active schooling.  The role of children and teens as consumers has expanded to the detriment of their development socially.  This must be addressed actively with the recession of the pandemic.  Will it be?  Education is the future of the society,  yet limited economic resources are dedicated to a broad initiative for public education,  and the emphasis has become increasingly focused on educating wealthy children.

4)    How to contain spiritual values in American culture maintaining the separation of church and state? The collapse of spiritual values in the US was symbolized by the political support of a morally corrupt leader by the majority of religiously affiliated Christian denominations (and some Jewish ones).  The decision to prioritize political influence over spiritual values is the essence of decline in spirituality.  This is augmented by the desire to create large wealthy congregations to the economic benefit of their leaders.  Without spiritual values,  the economic and political ones dominate, leaving the society exposed.  There is little indication that this has changed.

5)    How to educate people to live healthful lives and change healthcare to respond to this?  The most unfortunate aspect of healthcare in the US is its increasing emphasis on economic principles as the guiding force.  This occurs at every level:  individual health is defined in terms of preventing diseases by special expensive tests and treatments,  and by exercise regimens which require gym memberships or expensive home equipment.  In every instance,  the person's health is partly assigned to some outside agent,  at some significant expense.  When illnesses emerge,  they are treated with the most expensive tests, techniques, and medicines rather than the simplest,  because this is what is needed to sustain the economics of the healthcare component of the economy.  And those who do not have "good insurance", or any, are left to fend for themselves and deal with illness with little support,  and be bankrupted when they are forced to use the system under dire circumstances.  The last two decades have seen a drastic expansion of the influence of economic factors in the delivery of healthcare,  while reducing the quality of overall health, and increasing costs dramatically.  This is incorrectly blamed on the expansion of Obamacare, which merely extends the inappropriate costs and services to a wider group,  but does not contain them.  

6)    How to utilize new modes of communication to best serve society and the people in it?  In 2001, the potential benefits of broad social communication on the internet were beginning to be appreciated, but in the ensuing two decades all the negative potential for exploitation by the negative side of human character has been revealed.  The internet permits the public to be exposed to a broad range of positive and negative influences,  socially supportive and criminal, and everything in between.  The need for individuals to learn how to access the positive aspects and avoid the negative is part of the human adaptation of this new technology.  The tendency of politicians and some others to blame the problem on the role of a few dominant corporate entities completely misses the point of the individual role in managing participation in this system.  It is an indication of the lack of understanding of an older generation of politicians unprepared to address the challenges and role of government.  

7)    How to manage the impact of multinational corporations on society and limit their impact on American and world politics?  At the end of the previous millennium, multinational corporations were playing a dominant role in control of many industries, and the political authority of individual nations was weakening.  This was especially true in democratic countries, where the political will was influenced and controlled by financial interests.  This trend has diverged significantly.  China has emerged as a nation-state which asserts the power to control the participation of corporations by restricting their role while baiting them with the large economic potential of its population.  Small nations have little ability to influence the economic power of corporations on their leaders, and even large democracies have substantial undermining of independent political authority by corporate entities.  Corporations are not people,  and sometimes benefit the general public and sometimes exploit components of the population.  The political authority has responsibility to regulate this positive/negative impact,  and is losing its power to do so.

8)    What is the US role in world balance of power?  How to contain North/South relationships and the population bomb?  At the end of WW2, the United States was the dominant power in the world, and as recently as 1991,  the US was declared the leader in "Pax Americana".   In any group situation,  a single leader is always countered by alliances of other participants,  a reality that seems to have been lost on American foreign policy experts.  The failure to explore and develop complex multi-lateral alliances left the opportunities open to others.  Instead,  an ineffective policy built on "encouraging democracies" was totally unproductive.  The result was a declining role for the US in the world,  which the previous 4 years recognized and promised to reverse.  Instead, a more extreme for American autonomy with former allies was linked with alliances based on arms sales and other limited objectives.  The US is now encircled by links between other nations with limited ability to engage them.

9)    How to sustain the ecology of the environment and still have economic stability? Of all the challenges facing the country and the world,  the deterioration of the environment and its support of humanity is the most dire.  This was understood at the turn of the millennium and initially efforts were made among world nations to negotiate changes in economic practices that contribute to this deterioration.  Three basic issues must be addressed by all: 1) control of expanding population demands,  2) transition from fossil fuels to other solar based energy, and 3) reduction in the production and distribution of toxic substances.  All three of these goals negatively impact the expansion of the economies of countries,  and accommodation must be made to transition these changes or social disasters will result.  The inability to create a mutual world wide dialog about this task is distressing.  The emphasis of environmentalists on preserving at all cost, and of producers counter attacking is ineffective in negotiating outcomes.

That so little has been accomplished in 1/5th of the century is truly disturbing.

A SIMPLE GUIDE TO FINDING MEANING IN LIFE

 To live with some intention, each person must find a meaning for his or her life.  Without this meaning life becomes just a series of automatic biological actions,  endlessly repeating.
1. The most common meaning is survival, to find enough to eat and avoid predators and natural disasters successfully.  This is the most basic level of life,  and one that still is the basis for many lives in this country despite the accumulated wealth of the entire country.  Components of the economy contribute to this level of meaning,  and can have significant economic rewards for doing so.  Agriculture and farming, manufacturing and production of goods,  healthcare and production of healing substances, housing and construction, —-all these activities are important contributors to the basic level of survival.
2. The next most common meaning is to be part of a supportive social group.  This group may include family, local community, religious organization,  social organizations, or other groups which share common interests and values.  This is rarely in itself the only meaning a person experiences, but is a very important one as indicated by health measures, and the effort made to sustain it.  It has been terribly fragmented by the recent pandemic and quarantine.  All social and political activity is part of this level of meaning,  and is available to persons at any social or economic level depending on the structure and organization of the society.  
3. For many,  the meaning of life after survival becomes “living the good life”, which means some combination of choices about food, recreation, travel, home and accumulated possessions including clothing.  The definition of “good” varies with economic status, opportunities, ethnic and cultural values,  and personal choice.  But it always implies material accumulation of things. The wide range of this meaning from the exalted life of Pharaohs in Egypt and French 17th century kings to the limited options of minority choices in ghetto communities.  The increased sale of non-durable consumer objects for decoration or entertainment is the most obvious example of this lower end.  With the advent of digital communication, some of this has shifted to selection of digital choices,  which can be delivered by a consistent device, but vary in content.  Though more varied, there is no indication that this provides a “more significant” basis for meaning.
4. All religions provide the next level of meaning in life.  They combine three features:  1) a set of standards for interpersonal behavior in this world, 2) a solution to the questions of how the world came to be, and what happens to the person after death, and 3) a collection of socially ritual behaviors to reinforce commitment to these beliefs.  Religions like Communism provide a similar model,  as do cults and other variant forms.  It is tempting to scale religions along a measure of viability in evolutionary terms,  but the data suggest that other factors are also important.
5. The highest level for meaning in life is the ability to live a life that creates meaning about being alive in the world.  The traditional method for this is to participate in some aspect of arts and culture which articulates an expression of meaning in some formal aspect.  Although much of this can be “accumulated” in #3,  the creation of it goes beyond accumulation,  to a different level.

Everyone must choose the levels in which they participate,  and how they define meaning for themselves.  Failure to do this creates an empty automatic life which is experienced with despair.  On the other hand, an obsessive attachment to a particular mode of meaning,  as in obsessive collecting of specific objects, narrows the range of meaning and leads to emotional frustration in other ways.

FROM MADOFF TO TRUMP: the reality of the American Dream

    America was re-discovered by Europeans by mistake.  Every American school child is taught the story of Columbus' search for the gold and spices of the Indies by a new sea route only to land on an entirely different place.  The goal was riches and commercial wealth,  and in that respect the discovery has been realized many times over.  With the exception of small English religious orders escaping persecution,  everyone else has come to the America(s) in search of wealth and opportunity.  The goal is the same,  whether it is realized by growing sugar cane, extracting gold, discovering exotic spices (which mostly weren't there), or cultivating new land, the explorers were in search of wealth, and the American Dream has always been about wealth and success.

    The search for gold was not immediately successful in North America,  but more so in central.  Sugar became a major source of wealth in central and South America,  though only marginally in the North.  Plantation agriculture with the use of slaves became a source of wealth in southern US.  And when land on the east coast was significantly economically exploited,  pioneers moved West,  motivated by gold discovery in California,  and other metals in western mountains.  The eastern region became a center for manufacture and production of large and small goods,  with patents providing the opportunity for wealth.  Railroad monopolies, and oil monopolies,  coal, and iron and steel, all contributed to creating the "Robber Barons" of the late 19th and early 20th century.  Do not forget film and media production in the west as a dream of success.  And a new dream of wealth was created in the west by semiconductors,  technology, computers, and the internet. And a new cadre of extremely wealthy were created in the 1990s-2000s.

    What is the next dream?  How do individuals become wealthy and fulfill the American Dream in the 21st century?  There are indications from events occurring in the late 20th century.  The collapse of the economy in the 1990's was the result of a typical technology bubble,  the "dot-com internet bubble" and the errors of investors.  This was a typical "tulip mania" of excess investing,  seen with most technology development in capitalism,  like the railroads,  etc.  But the solution to reviving the economy was a new approach to stimulation by creating "investment products",  the mortgage speculation, and associated aggregated mortgage investments, which resulted in a repeat bubble and bust by 2008.  

    For most of the 20th century,  wealthy individuals had used investment strategies to maintain the value of the income they created in the primary businesses they developed.  Much of this was based on the consistent value and return of corporate bonds and other bond investments,  which held relatively stable value because of the stability of interest rates over much of this era.  But the "monetary theory" economists proposed significant manipulations of interest rates to stimulate economic growth,  and the stability of bond investments was undermined.  What happened next is a warning signal for the future of the economy.

    Evidence accumulated that ordinary investment strategies are not much more stable than the average indexes themselves, and rarely "beat" the indexes.  And bond investments became speculative as interest rates varied because bond values are inverse to rates.  Suddenly, there was no clear path to preserving wealth for the wealthy. (Or anyone else seeking a "retirement".)  A series of investment advisors entered this gap,  proposing that using complex investment strategies,  they could "hedge"  the ups and downs of the markets and protect the investor from risk.  Naturally,  this offer came at a high price and was only realistic for the very wealthy.  No one seemed to notice that these advisors had not protected anyone from the 2008 or 1990s busts,  but they claimed to have a new strategy that would prove itself.  Money flocked to these advisor's "hedge funds" after the dot-com bust.  Since then,  no data documents the enhanced outcome of the average of the funds, and specific funds that seemed to be highly successful use insider trading or other illegal methods to boost returns.  Despite this,  the funds remain highly invested,  particularly in regions like Dallas where there is a pool of wealthy individuals and a strong sense of speculation.

    Bernard Madoff entered this scenario as an investment advisor promising to guarantee returns to his investors.  Though his company had started in the 1960s,  it did not begin to surge until after the dot-com bust,  and grew in funds until 2009 when the reality of his manipulations as a ponzi-scheme were revealed.  He had been creating false statements of investment return for clients,  and used new investment money to cover older client payouts,  with overall poor market returns.  This strategy collapsed in 2008 with the recession created by mortgage manipulations, causing many of his clients to want to suddenly withdraw their investments,  which were gone.  Madoff worked out of the NYC area,  was an established brokerage company,  was evaluated by the SEC, and had mostly wealthy well education clients.  How had he succeeded in fooling so many for so long?  The answer is that he understood the fear behind the American dream:  that money is not stable over time and that somehow you must secure it to hold onto it.  Like "hedge funds" he promoted his "strategy" for protecting income,  though unlike "hedge funds" which were not always successful,  he seemed to be.   And the need for some form of economic security is the enduring, underlying fear of a strong capitalist economy,  and the less the individual is protected by social system measures,  the stronger the fear.

    Madoff's fraud demonstrated two important lessons: 1) Americans will go to any length to protect the future of their money,  and the wealthier they are,  the more desperate to protect it!  and 2) There is no financial scheme or product,  "hedge fund" or ponzi-scheme that will provide a guarantee.  

    The result of the collapse of 2008 has been several terrible trends in the US economy that threaten its future stability:

1) The wealthy are desperate to get even wealthier, not trusting any scheme to protect their wealth but accumulating more of it.  This opposes taxes, and other redistribution to poorer citizens and has exaggerated the wealth inequality.

2) The fantasy of magical financial manipulations that will"stabilize" ones wealth has now been transferred to the government itself, and the search for,  and belief in, some financial method that will allow deficits to turn into government equity is being debated everywhere.

3) The poor drift farther and farther into fantasies like lotteries and casino returns,  get rich fraud schemes,  fake education ploys, and the plethora of ways that moderately wealthy people exploit the very poor.   And as a great they are becoming more desperate and hopeless.

4) Lower middle class individuals,  someone with a house, or rental, and marginal work as long as they are healthy, are now at extreme risk of drifting into the class of poor and losing any hope of a future.

    All these statements are true.  In this environment,  candidate Trump promised to solve the problems by blaming the situation on immigrants (who were taking away jobs of the poor),  the Chinese (who were profiting on our failure to manufacture on this continent and provide jobs), and expensive health insurance (while planning to eliminate it entirely!).  His solution was to cut taxes to the wealthy, making it easier for them to follow their delusion that increased wealth would protect them, and pretend to encourage return of manufacturing to this continent by putting tariffs on Chinese goods,  which mostly reduced the Chinese use of US farm goods, and increased the cost of the consumables (that are destroying the economy).  He also blamed policies of environmental protection which reduced the profit of various industries, including the oil industry,  though these industries were not the major offshore problem!  

    These have all failed and he is no longer president.  The new economic team will have to struggle with the same economy he faced, and the distortions he caused in failing to address the problems.  But the biggest challenge by far is the failure of the American Dream:  Wealthy people no longer have any confidence that their wealth protects them,  and have become obsessed about how rich they must become, (what shelters they must build to prepare for the revolution).  And everyone else is noticing that the dedication to working consistently at a productive job is not available to most,  and does not lead to a secure if modest life.   Between 10% and 15% of Americans live in poverty now by our own country's definition,  and probably another 20% are one disaster away from bankruptcy and homelessness.  The homeless rate per 10000 in the US is higher by far than any other developed economy. 

    THE AMERICAN DREAM HAS BE DESTROYED.  IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW OR IF IT CAN BE REBUILT.  TO DO ANYTHING IT IS NECESSARY TO FACE THE REALITY THAT IT IS NOT CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL.

    

REFLECTIONS ON SUPERBOWL SUNDAY

It is almost time to begin watching the "Superbowl", a premiere sporting event of the United States.  

What is this special event and why is it important?  It is the annual competition between two American football teams which have played a season of previous games and each ended as the winner of their respective league competitions.   No such game existed until 1967,  when after several years of two separate leagues,  a game was staged between the NFL and AFC.  Why were there separate leagues?  Because the owners of the NFL teams to prevent competition were initially unwilling to expand their league to include other cities.  And so a separate group of teams were formed by new owners seeking the economic rewards of owning a team.  The birth of the superbowl is the acceptance that new teams would be allowed to compete with the old,  and the attempt to control the size of the league and its reward,  rejected.  As with most things in the United State,  it is about money.

Whose money?  The owners of the teams collect revenues by selling the right to watch the games from ever more expensive and tricked out stadiums from fans,  though most of these fans are extremely wealthy,  not everyday folks.  But in this season,  with covid, the fan revenue is not significant (though in other seasons it has fallen from 20 to15% of total), and the greater revenue from television presentation is the most important.  Televising sports is about selling products,  mostly fast foods,  automobiles, and a few other inessential products.  So the players and coaches receive salary (contracts)  paid by the teams  (as employees),  which come from the fan + TV revenue income paid to each team.  The teams also must pay for various other expenses,  including stadium rental use, and the rest goes to the owners.  Every team is ridiculously profitable,  and every one seeks to be an owner.  So despite enormous payouts to premium players,  owning a team is still very rewarding to owners.  Part of this is the result of not having to build or own the stadiums,  which are usually the property of the local cities,  paid for through tax assessment of the residents of the cities,  whether they can afford to attend the games in stadiums or not.  So the answer to "whose money" is simply US.  The fans pay for the performance of the games through sponsoring the stadiums,  buying the products of advertisers,  and direct payment for season tickets.  At one time,  little of this went to the players but with strikes and collective bargaining,  the players have been able to negotiate an increased component of the total revenue,  now 48.8%.  

Some complain that the players have become too wealthy, too rewarded, for playing 17-20 games in each Fall season.  This ignores the reality that every NFL player began training in sports as a teenager,  made major decisions about training and body development to physically qualify,  ignoring dedication to time for other facets of education. Each went through a competitive college drafting process (not called that),  and risked one to four years of college play endangering key physical body injuries that might end any chance of a professional career before it started.  Most of these players are not skilled enough despite this training and preparation for professional competition and have wasted and injured themselves to prepare for lives they will never have.  Estimated 1.8% will become NFL players.  "The average NFL career lasts 3.3 years, according to the NFL Players' Association; 78 percent of players go broke within three years of retirement and 15.7 percent file for bankruptcy within 12 years of leaving the league, according to a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research." (ESPN evaluation)  The desperate outcome of this dedication does not account for the injuries that leave many mentally and physically incapacitated.  The few highly paid,  economically advantaged star players are the absolute minority.

We viewers have paid our way to watch, usually on TV,  a group of men highly selected by personal training and physical capacity battle each other for one hour extended with various time outs and advertising time,  to state for one year that they are the "best" team, and each collect a special "ring".  The goal of this will be to financially benefit the owners,  perhaps advertisers, and to a limited extent a few players, the rest of whom will be consumed in the process within a few years.

IS THIS AN IMPORTANT ASPECT OF HUMAN LIFE?  DOES THIS REPRESENT A VALID USE OF SPORTING ACTIVITY,  ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO EUROPEAN SOCCER,  AMERICAN BASEBALL AND BASKETBALL, AND CANADIAN HOCKEY--- ALL SPORTS WITH BETTER RECORD OF SUPPORT OF PLAYERS,  AND LESS EXPLOITATION?

The "Superbowl" is a competition created by the economic competition between two "leagues" eventually merged to one,  but continuing to pretend that some major event is occurring for the benefit of revenues, and viewership.  When will it be time to look seriously at this destructive program? 

January 6th 2021: A day that will live in infamy.

 

    The events of the last 24 hours have been both horrible and encouraging. The pathetic insurrection attempt by Trump followers to disrupt the certification of the election by congress was expected. The only explanation for the lack of strong police presence was that the president interfered with protecting the congress. Our country has been shamed by a deranged self obsessed person who sees only his needs in any transaction.  The fools who performed this insurrection will face consequences and he will abandon them as he has anyone he no longer needs. This was a planned action that probably dates to the time that the Attorney General Barr resigned (or before).  Video circulating of him with family and friends happy and excited to observe the looming chaos reveal the utter shallow and empty quality of the person and his family.

    The persisting failure of joint congressional leadership to counter his disruption has been discouraging but there were hopeful signs yesterday in the joining together to complete the process of certification, in the face of a mob trying to block it. The American Democracy has survived, barely, and needs major repairs, not just on the damage to the capitol building, which is symbolic. Some in the congress now realize the dangers the country faces, and will withdraw their support from his lies and incompetence. They will need to move forward to redefine their party.

    A remaining group of congressmen (and women)continue to support the lies and unreality of the Trump position in hopes of capturing his remaining supporters for their own political advantage. Trump's supporters deserve a voice in the country that does not exploit them and addresses their real needs, not their fantasies. None of the individuals who spoke to oppose the certification have any other interest but their own political future, and will betray these people again. 

    History will tell if this day was the harbinger of a period of repression and dictatorship in a former democracy which became a "banana republic", or whether there are enough individuals who value the opportunities inherent in democracy to protect and preserve it.  I hope to be one of the latter.

CHALLENGES FACING THE NEW ADMINISTRATION

Washington is totally broken.  Trump et al must be replaced and something done to repair the government.  Some of this will only come through voting in new members of congress.  And this can only happen effectively if the CITIZENS UNITED decision of the Supreme Court is overturned by new legislation and challenges.  The control of the political process by the wealthy is enabled by the Citizens United decision. (This was a case brought by xxx about financing a movie!)

COVID  The pandemic sweeping the country must be accomplished by a unified national plan integrated by each state including protective isolation practices,  and effective vaccine distribution.  The fantasy that vaccines alone will quickly end the pandemic must be dispelled or it will encourage risky behavior and only extend the problem. 

 ECONOMY The apparent illusion that we had an effective economy was destroyed by the covid pandemic.  It is worth taking a moment to understand this.  The major impact of covid is on close contact business:  travel, crowd events and theme parks, restaurants, in person malls and shopping,  etc.  Over half the work force was thrown into unemployment and has recovered only about 2/3rds.  Is this the basis of a long term valid economy?  We have become a country which spends its money on disposable consumer items,  streaming media,  and low caloric value foods.  The streaming world "saved" our entertainment,  but isolates us into fantasy worlds.  It is time to review the basis of the economy and make decisions that support new directions in employment and education.  Fighting China is a total waste of time.  Their giant labor pool encourages them to commit to manufacturing of consumer disposables and attempt to steal high tech knowledge.  We should focus on expanding and protecting our own skills and let them emphasize what the US has "off shored".  The tariff war was a good example of the stupidity of the current administration.

The reality is that the country is controlled by businesses that care nothing about the government or its integrity,  but only about their profits and the people and country will go down as a result.  They will blame it on Trump,  but Rome was overcome by the corruption within,  and could no longer defend itself.  This is how arrogant powerful countries always fail.

SECURITY  The fundamental assumption of US security has been based since the 1950s on nuclear power.  Attempts to limit new members to the "nuclear weapons club" have already failed and will continue to fail.  The only solution for nuclear weapons is a world wide monitored treaty for managing their production and control. The breaches of internet performed by Russia represent the new world threat emerging.  Interactive control and damage to essential infrastructure including military operations like drones are the new weapons and warfare.  And they impact noncombatants much more than traditional warfare.  The mentality of the US DOD and congress have not progressed to this understanding to the extent that some of our enemies have.  Countries with limited nuclear weapons will find other weapons faster.  US must be dealt with the whole internet security issue ASAP.

DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH  The overall focus of the economy must change, but it must also address the mal-distribution of wealth.  The richest country in the world throws away the most food,  has the most unoccupied housing,  and the highest level of poverty and homelessness per capita.  This is crazy and builds a community of the "discarded" that can only lead to political instability.  How stupid can leaders be not to see the dangers in this and continue to facilitate laws that favor inequality??? The economy is threatening a worsening spread and free fall and the markets are ignoring this but will soon feel the effects of the pandemic and unemployment.  States are out of money and will be unable to provide the basic services that they must provide.  Demanding that the FED compensate this can only be temporary and long term deficits catch up with every country.  The tax base will fall apart.  During the 1930s the availability of labor due to unemployment led to the CCC and much infrastructure development was accomplished at affordable levels including the Golden Gate Bridge and Hoover Dam.

INSTITUTIONAL RACISM  The history of the US, along with most other European and some Asian nations includes development using slave labor.  (It also included "indentured servant labor" different in preserving personal identity).  The Civil War was fought partly to address resolving the use of slaves,  and ended with an apparent resolution of slavery that was quickly undermined in Reconstruction.  Waves of new immigrants in the 1800s and 1900s came to claim their place in the society, while the African American role remained unresolved. The 1960s appeared to be a new development in Black political presence with the voting rights act,  but it too has been undermined.  Electing a partly ethnic African president only served to highlight the conflict, and Black Lives Matter will continue to be a challenge for the country.

TWO PARTY SYSTEM The desire to find Red states and Blue states is a simplification that obscures other important issues.  Different regions have different regional objectives and needs and attempting to parse them to one party or the other is very difficult.  The US is a regionally differentiated multi-issue society trying to simplify the problems into a two party system rather than a parliamentary multi-issue party system.  The solution has been to have each party pick the regions and issues it wishes to support,  which is no solution at all.  A new approach to political organization is needed.  The recent election in GA shows that a simple RED/BLUE definition is not correct and a new political calculus must be developed.

POTUS continuing to contest and manipulate about the election.  The events of the last 24 hours have been both horrible and encouraging. The pathetic insurrection attempt by Trump followers to disrupt the certification of the election by congress was expected. The only explanation for the lack of strong police presence was that the president interfered with protecting the congress. Our country has been shamed by a deranged self obsessed person who sees only his needs in any transaction. The fools who performed this insurrection will face consequences and he will abandon them as he has anyone he no longer needs. This was a planned action that probably dates to the time that the Attorney General Barr resigned (or before).
The persisting failure of joint congressional leadership to counter his disruption has been discouraging but there were hopeful signs yesterday in the joining together to complete the process of certification, in the face of a mob trying to block it. The American Democracy has survived, barely, and needs major repairs, not just on the damage to the capitol building, which is symbolic. Some in the congress now realize the dangers the country faces, and will withdraw their support from his lies and incompetence. They will need to move forward to redefine their party.
A remaining group of congressmen (and women)continue to support the lies and unreality of the Trump position in hopes of capturing his remaining supporters for their own political advantage. Trump's supporters deserve a voice in the country that does not exploit them and addresses their real needs, not their fantasies. None of the individuals who spoke to oppose the certification have any other interest but their own political future, and will betray these people again. 

 The magnitude of all these problems is astounding.  The country and our leaders have let problems build up for decades in administrations of both parties.  These cannot be solved in a year or even one administrative term.  But there must be a start to addressing them.  Americans are good at problem solving when they work together and good at starting wars when they don't.

THE UNITED STATES IS A FAILED COUNTRY

This article in current Atlantic Monthly captures half the story:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/what-trump-and-his-mob-taught-world-about-america/617579/

More important is what it taught America about itself. We have been lying to ourselves. If Americans want our country to be the fantasy we pretend that it is, we have a lot of work to do. For decades we have not lived the image projected by leaders and media. Now is the time for a reckoning and revision, or accepting that we have failed to realize the ideal "a country where all men are created equal" and that government "of the people, by the people, and for the people" HAS departed..

The mob that stormed congress was fomented by deranged leaders, and media promotion of conspiracy fantasies, but they were living in a country that has failed them and many others: 

This is a country in which income inequality has increased dramatically over the past decade to the point that there is little middle class left and expanding poverty and homelessness,  while a tiny fraction of the population gets enormously wealthy.  The true definition of a "banana republic".

Electing a partly ethnic African president activated the outpouring of persisting personal and institutional racism, and then the next president utilized this segment of society as a political stepping stone.  Black Lives Matter  issues were on full display when white domestic terrorists invaded the capitol and no significant police resistance was mounted.

In the previous election, citizens chose a reality TV fantasy president who voiced their anger and rage but is personally and intellectually incapable of leadership, exploits everyone for his personal gain and is unable to  acknowledge his own mistakes and failures, including the recent election.  

There is a long history of "pay to play government" at all levels in America, while leaders pretend it does not occur here and demean other "3rd world countries" for their graft and corruption.  America has been the go-to place for laundering money for decades with its "shell corporations" which have just recently been forced to reveal owners in a defense bill that Trump vetoed, and which WAS overridden.

The country is so dysfunctional that it was unable to manage a life threatening epidemic because so many don't want to give up their fun/freedom and because of its impact on the economy.  Leadership at many levels could not find a reasonable balance between saving lives and protecting economic security of the people.  And

Washington has become a "forbidden city".  A region where every sort of special interest goes to cash in on the government, i.e. taxpayers money, as facilitated by modern mandarins called "beltway bandits".  The excessive political role of the oil industry in political affairs has resulted in engaging America in two recent wars in the middle east with major destruction to the social, material and physical stability of the region,  with no significant benefit to our country.  This is the parallel of the wars Rome pursued which eventually led to its decline.

This is not a sudden change.  It is not clear when the government went off the rails, but the assassination of Kennedy was a beginning leading into the chaos of the country's response to the Vietnam war.  Nixon's efforts failed to stem the tide.  Carter was a saint, and saints have no role in politics.  The Reagan era brought an increased role of business interests, and the delusions of Republicans that this was the "golden age" because the Soviet Union was failing under its lack of leadership and the credit attributed to Reagan.  The Clinton presidency saw a bipartisan acceptance of "pay to play"   and increasing disregard for the middle class, despite the booming economy.  This is not a Republican Democrat issue, the Clinton's blurred that line.  It is about rich/poor and who is heard in the country.

The United States is a large geographical region with many subregions of special interests.  It would be difficult under any circumstances to govern and manage all the different interests.  This challenge encourages bureaucracy and Washington,  like China, Russia, and other very large governments, have enormous bureaucracies which ineffectively attempt to manage the people and interest groups.  Bureaucracy favors paranoid distrust and the emergence of social media has created a channel of communication for fanning this paranoid distrust. Social media did not create the paranoia, but it serves as a conduit for transmitting it rapidly.  Social media COULD be used to make government more transparent and bring citizens into more knowledge about the conflicts and negotiations being performed.  The major news media are now useless in this regard.  The major TV and paper news media are owned by large private corporations with strong interest in slanting the reporting and cannot perform the functions of the "third estate" reliably.